I’ll admit that I have never been very high on Carl Pavano. This might be because of the simple fact of his injury-devastated tenure with the Yankees or the fact that I always seemed to get most involved in the games that he lost. Either way, I know his peripherals from last year indicated he had big things in store, but I still mentally steel myself for a rough night when he’s going to pitch. So: I am proud to say that feeling was entirely wrong last night, though it sure felt right for the first two innings or so.
That said, i have figured out why Denard Span is having such a rough time. Please compare the following pictures; one from last season, one from two days ago:
Okay, so I couldn’t find a good picture of Span from this season so far. The point is that last year Span sported a shaggy man-beard, which I think may have been the source of his power. Now, he’s rocking the basic Torii Hunter Goatee, which is apparently not suiting him. Two things:
I know Span has a connection with Torii Hunter, but time has demonstrated that Torii is just not someone that we want him to mimic, with the possible exception of the occasional outfield catch. Everything else? Not so much.
If Span is indeed some weird post-modern version of Samson, there is only one way to solve his problems – a combination of Cuddyer magicking his razors away and a continued commitment to being Good at Baseball.
I first noticed this problem during the broadcast of last night’s game, and needless to say I just about fell off my chair. Denard, bring back the Man-Beard!
Despite the sadness that is the lack of Man-Beard, there were some important, clutch performers yesterday night:
Neck Tat picked up his second save, which ties him atop the MLB leaderboard at this point in the season. This save was a bit tougher, as he gave up a couple hits and an ER on his way. However, as Aaron Gleeman often says, pretty much any idiot can successfully not cough up the lead when you’re up 3. WPA: .051.
Matt Guerrier was quality, cutting through the heart of the California Angels of Anaheim that are also from Los Angeles’ lineup in his 8th inning. WPA: .062.
JJ Hardy continues to be decent at the plate (another home run and two hits) and shockingly good on defense (his arm is an amazing cannon). WPA: .049
Twins Territory once again collectively crapped its pants when Nick Punto hit a triple. WPA: .051
HERO OF THE DAY: Carl Pavano went 7 innings (the first Twins starter to do so), giving up only 6 hits and 1 ER, with no walks issued and 6 Ks. Beautiful outing. I need to think of a nickname for him. Squinty? I’m working on it.
Unfortunately, some of the Twins crapped the bed yesterday as well:
Michael Cuddyer was very nearly picked off first base again. Other than that, he was unremarkable. WPA: -.019
Orlando Hudson had another terrible night. He’ll fix it eventually, but man… WPA: -.074
Jim Thome was in the lineup for Kubel for some unknown reason, and he did not acquit himself well, striking out three times in four at-bats. WPA: -.067
Last night was the debut of the “M” logo hat. I haven’t had time to decide what hat tonight will demand, but I’m leaning toward the red “TC.” Thoughts?
Here’s a little refresher on the series, before I begin:
Basically, the premise of the series is that certain games have an effect that is far greater than their mere impact on the win-loss column. These games are mentally and physically definitive of a season, and before the new season begins, by looking back and remembering and feeling the emotions of last season one more time, we can understand what happened, what went wrong, and most importantly, what went right. So, climb aboard the side-burn express, and keep your hands, arms, feet, heads, and all other extremities inside the vehicles at all times as we embark on one final excursion through the highs and lows of last season.
When the Twins broke camp in 2009, they did so without their best player. Joe Mauer, who had been hurting for most of the off-season, had only just found an anti-inflammatory that solved the pain he felt most of the time. The Twins instead broke with Mike Redmond and Jose Morales, and for some unfathomable reason started Redmond over Morales most of the month, as Redmond wore down. However, it did lead to the (probably temporary) rise of Jose Morales. If we didn’t have Wilson Ramos in the high minors, we’d be talking a lot more about how good Jose Morales is. He’s no world-beater, but he hits for average when he gets to start. I wonder what he could net in a trade? Maybe a B prospect? Hmmm…
Okay, digression over.
So, everyone knows the story of this game. Joe, having recovered from inflammation in his sacroiliac joint, came up and blasted a massive home run. If you were at all like me, you were watching the game and stood up and cheered like he had just launched a home run in Game Seven of the world series. After my neighbors below pounded on the ceiling, my wife looked at me like I was crazy, and my dog ran barking out of the room, I realized that I may have overreacted. In hindsight, though, I think that was exactly the correct way to respond. Joe’s return to the lineup not only won that specific game, as he did go 2-3 with a walk, while scoring three runs, but it also galvanized the Twins, and began the slow, yet steady, march to the post-season.
It was also the beginning of one of the most amazing seasons any of us will have the opportunity to see play out before us. Joe was truly amazing last season – he ended with the highest batting average by a catcher in the American League, ever. He also is the first Triple-Slash Crown winner (batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage). He was elected to his first MVP, almost unanimously, which he would have been if not for one idiotic writer who should lose his right to vote on all future awards.
It's the Joe-point we'll be sadly missing this year. Courtesy MLB.com.
I mean, there was a lot of good to this game in addition to Joe’s return. First, the Twins destroyed Sidney Ponson, who I still hold a grudge against from the disastrous ’07 season. Kevin Slowey was nothing special, but the relief corps stepped up in a big way. Jose Mijares and Joe Nathan both pitched perfect innings, and Matt Guerrier threw two perfect innings. This, to me, is the biggest argument that he should not be the designated closer this year, but that’s neither here nor there.
The real takeaway from Important Game #4 was Joe Mauer’s return. You can talk about or analyze everything else about the game and probably get something more meaningful than a 5-7 victory for the Twins, but the only really important thing was Joe’s return. It was perhaps the most important day of the season for that reason, although the game itself wasn’t all that important.
(Note: I’ll be posting several articles that I had partially written since Friday but didn’t have time to finish. Please check back often for the rest! As, always, I’ll be tweeting @calltothepen. Follow me there or subscribe to my posts using the button on the sidebar!)
Here’s a quick refresher about the series:
Basically, the premise of the series is that certain games have an effect that is far greater than their mere impact on the win-loss column. These games are mentally and physically definitive of a season, and before the new season begins, by looking back and remembering and feeling the emotions of last season one more time, we can understand what happened, what went wrong, and most importantly, what went right. So, climb aboard the side-burn express, and keep your hands, arms, feet, heads, and all other extremities inside the vehicles at all times as we embark on one final excursion through the highs and lows of last season.
This is the only one of the games in on the list that are important, not only for what happened in the game itself, but from news that blossomed based on a seed planted during the game. This was, as the title implies the final game of 2009 that was pitched by our erstwhile and potential ace, Kevin Slowey. But more about that in a little while. First, a discussion of the Important game itself.
The 2009 Twins were perhaps the most hot-and-cold team I can remember following. They would seemingly go for weeks at a time without a quality start from their pitchers (quality = good, not the meaningless counting stat), then turn it on and win a bunch in a row. Overall, the offense was somehow acceptable, despite the fact that their obscenely high batting average w/ runners in scoring position in 2008 came back down to earth, and they did it with barely a warm body in the second position in the batting order. The batting average, OBP, and SLG% was the worst of all the second hitters in the majors. However, as good as the offense was on the season, the pitching staff was shaky from the start, in large part stemming from some extremely poor personnel management.
For whatever odd reason, the Twins broke camp with Luis Ayala. Ayala is a topic for another day and possibly his own post, but suffice to say I can’t fathom why the Twins signed a sinkerballer whose fastballs have never really sunk to be middle-relief/low-leverage setup guy when he thought he was signing a contract for high-lev setup or closing if Joe Nathan went down. So, Ayala wasted a roster spot for three months. The Twins also brought Phil Humber north, perhaps hoping beyond hope that he would be able to contribute better at the MLB level than he had in Rochester. He didn’t, and was released April 17 to make space for Juan Morillo, who spent all of a week or so in the majors before being sent to the minors and eventually going to Japan. R.A. Dickey also came to Minny, and proved to be valuable, if uber-hittable. He also was released eventually. The trend continued all year: rather than trading or doing anything to get a serviceable relief pitcher (up until the Jon Rauch trade and the Ron Mahay signing), the Twins acted incredibly stupid. The Twins lost Craig Breslow, perhaps the greatest unheralded hero of the 2008 squad, to waivers because they were impatient with his good-but-not-as-steller-as-last-year numbers, only to bring up Sean Henn. Face it. Stupid moves abounded. More on this in another post later this week.
But the biggest problem was the starters, three of the five of which regressed significantly. Kevin Slowey was on pace to win 20 games before he was lost for the season (see below), but his peripherals were not-so-sparkling. Scott “Timmy” Baker started the season hurt, then lost six straight. Francisco Liriano lost the ability to handle the strike zone. Glen Perkins started brilliant, then came down with a phantom-like, mysterious shoulder injury that no one but him could locate. Only Nick Blackburn was rock-steady, with a nearly identical season to 2008. This forced the Twins to rely on a hodge-podge of Dickey, Armando Gabino, Anthony Swarzak, Brian Duensing, and Jeff Manship to start fourth-and-fifth games. Duensing even had the honor of being murdered by the Yankees in the first game of the playoffs. Anyway, the whole idea I’m trying to put out here is how bad a shape the starting staff was last year.
Inge hit by a pitch to the jersey. Deja Vu much? Image Courtesy MLB.com
The game on July 3rd started out disastrously. Kevin Slowey gave up six runs in the first three innings, before he was removed due to soreness in his wrist. Brian Duensing came in and made a valiant effort to hold the line, going 3.2 innings, giving up just one run. The Twins offense did their best to back up the Twins starter, and managed to tie the game at 7 based on a run each in the third and fourth innings before exploding for five in the sixth. The Twins brought in Bobby Keppel to keep it tied when Duensing indicated that his arm was about to fall off, and, somewhat surprisingly, he continued his scoreless streak with 1 1/3 inning. He was followed by perfect outings from Joe Nathan, Matt Guerrier, and Jose Mijares, all of whom pitched scoreless innings (or two). The Tigers and Twins matched runs in the 14th. At this point, the game felt just slightly epic. I wondered if the game would ever be over.
Brendan Harris hits a triple, his only hit. Image Courtesy MLB.com
Offensively, the heroes included Denard Span, who was 5 for 8 with a triple, a run scored, and an RBI, Joe Mauer, who was 2 for 6 with a walk and an RBI, Delmon Young, who was 3 for 6 with his third home run of the season, Michael Cuddyer, who was 3 for 8 w/ 2 RBI, and Justin Morneau went 3 for 7 with a walk and an RBI. Somewhat unsurprisingly, Carlos Gomez, Matt Tolbert, Brian Buscher, and Nick Punto went a combined 0 for 9, with 2 walks (both by Punto).
Pitching a game that lasts 16 innings can be tough, but it becomes excruciating when the starter leaves after 3 innings. Dickey was the last available pitcher of the night, and I think he was literally in the game until his arm fell off or Michael Cuddyer was able to convince Gardy that his sinker was good enough to get outs. Unfortunately, the Twins offense wasn’t able to win the game in any of the preceding 6 extra innings, and the Tigers mauled Dickey for three runs in the top of the 16th. The Twins’ comeback fell short, and they fell back to 2.5 games behind the Tigers in the Central.
As hard as the loss was to bear, the next day the Twins got even worse news: that Kevin Slowey would be heading to the disabled list. Though Slowey had had some rough times, when he was on, he had been arguably the best pitcher on the Twins the past two seasons. He was originally put on the DL for a “strained wrist”; the hope was that he’d be back in a few weeks. Unfortunately, the wrist never felt better, and it was eventually discovered that he had a broken wrist, and probably had since being struck by a line drive off the bat of Juan Uribe in his final start of 2008. He had surgery and ended with two pins in his wrist, which even at the beginning of this season were still causing him grief. For it’s ability to impact the Twins even this year, July 3rd joins the countdown as Important Game #6.
So, we have arrived at the second half of the season, at least as separated by the All-Star Break. The Twins, as a team, are playing pretty well. If not for injuries/illnesses, there is a very good probability that the Twins could be leading the division right now. Lets take quick stock of what this team has:
An amazing defensive catcher who also leads the majors in batting average and the American league in SLG%, OBP%, and therefore, OPS. He also leads the league in VORP. All-in-all, worth offering a big contract to, I think.
For the first time in years, a relatively stable defensively-proficient third base, which also has provided a great deal of power and home runs.
As for first base, do I need to say anything?
On most days, a very good defensive outfield.
On most days, a proficient starting rotation.
On some days, a proficient bullpen.
A great closer.
A DH that seems to finally be hitting his stride (well, he started to last year, but he has gotten better this year).
The season’s four worst pitchers, measured by ERA, are no longer with the Twins.
Here’s what we are lacking:
A reliable bridge to said closer.
Proven long relief.
Consistency in the bullpen.
A 1-2 punch in the rotation… or we could have Liriano actually step it up a bit.
A middle infield that, you know, hits the ball with any reliability.
A hitter for the 2-spot.
A reliever that can reliably get lefties out in the middle innings (other than Mijares).
So with that in mind, I’ll look at the bullpen in this post, and some of the other missing pieces in other posts. I’ll start with a look at the staff post-all-star break, in order of efficiency/how good they have been for the first half.
Joe Nathan – Has been just as good as advertised, and worth his extension. His inning in the All-Star game was uncharacteristically shaky, but he has been a force of nature most of the year, and I am pleased to say that my reluctance to grant my approval to Nathan has been proven unreasonable. Joe is now, in my opinion, the best closer in baseball by quite a bit, and we should appreciate him even more than we do, if possible.
Jose Mijares – While part of me wants to continue to insist that he is playing over his head, he has been so consistent that even a cynical guy like myself has to acknowledge that he must be doing something right. Mijares’ K-to-BB ratio is nothing special, at 25-to-14, but his ERA is still below 2, earning him the number 2 spot on this list. However, Mijares seems like he might be morphing into an early-Nathan-style reliever, where he gets the job done, but there are a lot of baserunners and a lot of fingernails chewed to the nub.
Matt Guerrier – When Matty basically melted his arm last year, we (including me) were worried about his future with the team. He has since proven that we had little worry about. He has gone back to his efficient self, putting up a sub-2.5 ERA while posting the second best WHIP on the team, after Mr. Nathan. We’ll see if overuse remains a problem later in the year, but so far, he has been used less, and he has shown that the trust placed in him has not been misplaced.
R.A. Dickey – Dickey has hit a rough spot this month, after hanging out at a 2.36 ERA at the beginning of the month, he gave up runs in three of his last four outings, though they weren’t all his fault. Even so, he still sits at an impressive 3.25 ERA going into tonights action against his old Texas team. The Home/Road splits have been heinous on Dickey, but not in the way you would expect. On the road, he holds a 1.75 ERA and a 1.2 WHIP, while at home he has a 4.55 ERA and a 1.5 WHIP. This gives me some hope for next year, as he should stick with the team. They thought that Dickey would be great in the controlled conditions of the Dome, but that just hasn’t been borne out. However, he has been FAR better than expected, and that should be recognized even through his current struggles.
Bobby Keppel – WTF?! Seriously, I wrote a few weeks ago that he would be a rent-a-player until he either was demoted and opted out of his contract, or would be traded. While trading him is still not out of the question, I have to say, he has been darn impressive. In 12.1 innings, he has allowed only one ER, and has been much better than advertised (See, front office, this is what an effective sinkerball looks like!). He’ll probably come back to earth, and when he does, the Twins have the luxury of choosing whether they want to hold on to him or not. I’m guessing they will, unless he becomes horrendous a la Sean Henn.
Brian Duensing – Why is he with the team? If he is being showed off as trade bait, it isn’t working too well. If they are hoping to get good innings from him, it hasn’t been working either. I assume the only reason he is up is for another lefty option, but honestly, i don’t know why. He’s suitable for mop-up work and not much else.
Kevin Mulvey – The Twins just purchased his contract. Again, I don’t know why. Trade bait? Who knows.
So, we have the good, the bad, the ugly, and the unknown. I am not optimistic about the Twins’ ability to trade for bullpen help, but I would assume that we will be seeing a good short reliever soon, like Rob Delaney or Anthony Slama (both of whom should get September call-ups, if not sooner). I wouldn’t focus on a set-up guy per se, though. Mijares and Guerrier are doing a decent job of that at this point. What the Twins really need is consistency in middle relief, and if Keppel and Mulvey (and maybe even Duensing) can provide that, the Bullpen is in a strong position for the beginning of the second half of the season.
The Twins’ bullpen has been long lamented by me and many others that write on the interwebs. Most of them are better at statistics than me, which is why I generally shy away from using advanced statistics to make predictions or to analyze the past performance of a pitcher. If you want someone to use stats, try here or here or here.
My place in the storied (yeah, right) history of the Twins blogosphere is to point out what should be obvious, and thus waste everyone’s time. Hence today’s observation:
The bullpen kinda, sorta stinks.
Yeah, yeah. I know, don’t let all your jaws hit the floor in unison. This is the kind of observation that I get (not) paid for. No compliments, it’s what I do.
However, it’s true. The Twins have now lost 12 games with their bullpen, which is fifth worst in the league (there are three teams tied at 13).Their ERA is 4.19, which isn’t bad, except when you think about how many extra runs the starters have absorbed because of the bullpen’s ability to strand. They have been, in short, really bad.
However, the bullpen has only had to throw 197.1 innings, which is fourth-fewest, and in my opinion, fourth best, in the AL. (just as an fyi, I use the AL as a measuring stick because NL rules lead to a very different role for the bullpen from time to time). The starters have done a good job of eating innings, which is pretty impressive, given the poor records of Scott Baker, and, especially, Francisco Liriano. As a matter of fact, the Twins starters have thrown the most innings in the AL (and are only 1/3 inning behind St. Louis for the overall lead) at 429.1 innings.
The bullpen’s ERA is better than the starters, mostly thanks to disastrous outings by Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins, and Scott Baker in April (4.19 to 4.55). However, the bullpen ERA is helped by incredibly low numbers put up by Joe Nathan, Jose Mijares, R.A. Dickey (as a reliever), and Matt Guerrier (at 1.69, 2.57, 2.14, and 2.84, respectively). The numbers then jump up by more than a full run to 4.18 (Luis Ayala, may he rest in peace), 6.00 (Brian Duensing, in AAA), 6.28 (Craig Breslow, may he enjoy the yellow and green in Oakland), 7.36 (Sean Henn, who for some reason is still with the team), 8.15 (Jesse Crain, in AAA), 12.46 (Phil Humber, may he rest in peace), and 22.50 (Juan Morillo, in AAA). (Note: I know ERA is bad as a measure, but I don’t do advanced stats, so there we go).
Ouch. So, pretty much what we can conclude from this is that the four anchors of the bullpen have been great most (or all) of the season, and especially lately. However, the rest have been wretched. Ironically, yesterday the Twins got rid of the best of the worst when they dfa’d Ayala, for doing basically what the Twins should have expected him to do from the time they signed him, as Aaron Gleeman pointed out this morning. They basically switched him for Bobby Keppel, who should take up the mantle as yet another mediocre righty in the ‘Pen.
Despite the obvious problems with the bullpen, though, there is no reason the bullpen can’t be a reason the Twins will succeed, rather than something they have to overcome to succeed. The four studs are more than capable of mixing and matching to take the eighth and ninth innings and the seventh if necessary. However, the Twins have no semi-effective mop-up guy, or a guy that could throw multiple innings other than Dickey, who should really be placed in higher-leverage situations.
However, the starters might be in line to need more time off. Nick Blackburn is on track to throw 212 innings, and he, Baker, Kevin Slowey, and Liriano are all on track to throw career highs in total innings (Perkins would be too if he hadn’t been on the DL). The starting staff will tire and will likely start to break down a bit, which means that we need middle relief that actually works. Unfortunately, no one but Dickey has been adequate in that role, and he will likely be placed in higher leverage situations because he has been so good to this point. Henn needs to stay out of situations where there is less than a four run lead or a six-run deficit, but that isn’t going to be an option if middle relief is needed. Keppel hardly inspires confidence, as he seems like a cheaper and probably less effective Ayala.
So, what about Glen Perkins? He has been rather ineffective as a whole as a starter this year, though he has had flashes of brilliance. What if he was sent to the ‘Pen to be the long-reliever? I don’t doubt he would be really good in that role. Lacking that, maybe Swarzak could come back to fill that role; he did quite well in two of four outings as a starter, but maybe he’d do better only seeing each hitter once.
So, note to Bill Smith: we don’t need Huston Street, and we really don’t need LaTroy Hawkins. We need a Brad Penny. Or, barring that, we need fewer mediocre minor league free agents.
I had a hard time ranking the games at the end of the season that really determined the Twins’ fate? Sure, it would make sense for the top seven games to all be in the Twins-Sox series and the Twins-Royals series, plus the tiebreaker. However, I decided that not only would it be boring, it would be self-defeating. There were many more important days in the 2008 season, and for different reasons. There were also a lot of really dramatic games that really weren’t that important in the long run. I mean, remember that KC game where Delmon Young did his best to lose the game on an attempted foot-first sliding catch that ended in an inside-the-parker? And then the Twins came back to win it? That was really dramatic game, and one of the worst to watch (at least, after the seventh inning, but it really wasn’t important, other than reinforcing that Delmon Young couldn’t field.
And what about games that resulted in players getting cut? I could pull out the last game where Livan pitched or Monroe hit before they were cut August first, but those games weren’t very important overall (I made a big deal about Rincon’s last game, but that game was important in and of itself). I could talk about either of the games where Lamb or Everett were cut. Again, not important. Brian Bass also sucked, but he was cut after another game that may or not make an appearance on the countdown.
This is not one of those games. By this time, the Twins roster was established, for better or for worse. This is the first of that momentous series against the ChiSox.
No, not the sexual third base. What are we, middle schoolers?
Today, LENIII of the Star Tribune said, for the first time, that he thought that the Twins had a good shot at getting Crede. He made a more methodical run-down of the teams that might be interested in Crede, which is worth reading, of course. Several other bloggers have expressed similar opinions (and if I find links, I’ll post them, I promise).
However, advocating for a Crede signing ignores so many other issues.
The thrid base spot hs been a problem for the Twins for years. Last year, the spot was filled by Mike Lamb (followed eventually by the platoon of Brendan Harris and Brian Buscher). Buscher and Harris did an admirable job, considering everything that was against them, including losing their jobs to an off-season acquisition, like (potentially) Crede). However, there are several other areas that deserve attention before third base.
First, the bullpen. Signing Luis Ayala was the equivalent to promising a sixteen-year-old a Lexus and then getting her a Ford. Not only will the warranty mean nothing (soon), it is just a crappy idea (I am not endorsing Lexus over Ford, I actually prefer NEITHER of these two brands. They might even be made by the same company, for all I know.). The front office promised us action, and then poked us in the eye instead. They said, “You want another Neshek? You do? Hah! Here’s Ayala!” (POKE!). You want an active front office? ” Here’s nothing!” (POKE!!!).
Let’s be honest: 2009 is the last year of the ‘Dome Field Advantage. Once the Twins move outdoors, they will no longer have the thunderous crowd noise, the favorable ceiling, or even the strange dimensions that were provided by the Metrodome. Many other bloggers have been talking about 2010 as the year to “go for it.” However, that should be 2009; In 2010, the Twins lose the meager advantage that they have going for them. Suddenly, it will be like playing in every other park in baseball (sure, a park with lots of fans, but still…).
The first thing the Twins should address is the outfield situation. See here for my thoughts on how to resolve that issue.
The second thing that needs to be resolved is the bullpen. The Twins are entering spring training with the following group: Joe Nathan (duh), Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, Boof Bonser/Phil Humber, Craig Breslow (a.k.a. Superman), Jose Mijares, and Luis Ayala. Where is the closer? Oh, there you are, Joe. Where’s the setup guy? Oh, crap. Crain? Breslow? BONSER? Where do we go from here? I suppose we wait to see what Spring Training brings in. Still, the Twins have bullpen problems. No one can deny that.
Have both of these been solved? Really? Good job, Twins front office, if this is the case. However, that still leaves one thing…
Really? We have reached Third Base? I suppose I should be happy, since it is number three of the three things that the Twins needed to address this off-season. What has this come to? Essentially, last year’s platoon is assumed to be the starter. However, the Twins seem not to have given up on Crede, which is, well, stupid. Buscher and Harris could hold down third at least as well as Crede, likely better. The only advantage of Crede is that the Front Office will have done something.
But just to have done some thinking about the spot is likely more than most fans will participate in. Most fans think, oh, wait, they did something. They’ll be better this year. SWEET!
Unfortunately, this has been proven false many times. Whee. Every. Year, as far as the Twins are concerned. Batista? Really. Punto? Alright, until he wasn’t. Lamb? Give me a break. Koskie? Here’s a real claim to fame; what about managing?
Ugh. Just. Ugh. Why are we worrying about third base when there are a ton of other unpursued options?
So, I’m back. Sorry about essentially missing the last three weeks. I had a week of vacation, followed by a week of moving, followed by a week of EIW (early interview week, for those not law-school inclined). But, classes start again on Tuesday, and a more regular schedule will be far more conducive to more regular blogging.
So. Given the name of the blog and what I have been focusing on personally this season, I think I will have a weekly issue on the state of the ‘Pen.
The ‘Pen has not been a happy place to be for the last week for some of its members. Brian Bass went away and ended up in Rochester. Jesse Crain has given up the winning run in the last three games in which he has pitched. Guardado, the newest (and the oldest) face in the Twins’ ‘pen got shelled and nearly lost Wednesday’s game. So, lets go through it, reliever by reliever.
Brian Bass (-) RIP. Bass accepted his assignment to Rochester, so we might see him again on Tuesday after the call-ups. However, this could be the end of “Kerosene Boy.”
Boof Bonser (-) Boof had a very good week, after disappointing for most of the season. In four innings, Boof gave up only one earned run on two hits. If Boof’s coversion to a long reliever continues in this vein, he will have a future with this team, though I still think he should be trade bait for some bullpen depth (or depth anywhere else). That said, his stuff was nearly filthy on Thursday night.
Craig Breslow (-) Breslow has continued a stellar season. One thing that Breslow has been suffering from are high expectations upon his claiming off waivers from the Indians. We all just sort of expected him to be the Reyes of ’06. In the last week, he gave up one earned run on one hit in 4.1 innings. Not great, but when you consider that he absorbed the loss when Jesse Crain allowed an inherited runner to score on Thursday (accounting for the one ER), he really was fantastic. Breslow appears to be earning Gardy’s trust, and I think he deserves a look as a seventh/eighth inning guy on nights when Guerrier and/or Guardado aren’t available. On Friday night, Breslow turned in one of the best performances of the year by a Twins relief pitcher, throwing three perfect innings with three Ks, earning a meaningless save in the 12-2 blowout.
Eddie Guardado (-) So, the Twins made a move that surprised everyone (and no one) when they moved A-ball closer Mark Hamburger to the Rangers for Everyday Eddie. I (personally) was not a fan of the move. Mark Hamburger looked to be the heir apparent to Anthony Slama in Ft. Myers, and his high-nineties fastball was fast for his frame (which could have stood for a bit of added weight). Maybe it’s just me, but getting Eddie for a couple months (I think that’s all we get) for someone with a ton of potential value is just rough. But, then again, there is a huge logjam of relievers in teh lower levels of teh Twins organization, since the Twins are stuck with the likes of Julio DePaula, Carmen Cali, and Danny Graves in AAA, which has kept people down lower than their level should be. Anyway, goodbye, Burgerman. Have fun in the Texas system. Anyway, Eddie immediately reminded us all of why he both made us happy and made us cry when he was acquired. He threw a perfect eighth on Monday, then gave up a run in 2/3 innings on Thursday. Don’t expect anything else from Eddie. He’s a great guy, but he is old and wanted to finish his career in a Twins uniform. I’m happy he got his wish.
Matt Guerrier (-) Matty is slowly redeeming himself as he tries to come back from overuse. He was given seven of ten days of from August 12 – 21,and immediately responded, appearing in every game of the seattle series without giving up a hit. Guerrier will be fine, though his ERA will be horrible for this year.
Joe Nathan (-) I’ll come back when there is something to tell. He had a bad night the other night, but that’s that.
Dennys Reyes (-) Eh. He’s been passable, but still not great. Reyes, as all year, has been wildly inconsistent. In three appearances totaling 2.2 innings, he gave up two hits and one earned run; he once had to be rescued by Breslow.
I am not going to talk about Jesse Crain right now. I am still mad at him from last night, and so talking about him wouldn’t be terribly helpful. Just to suffice it to say that he has become the Guerrier of two weeks ago, and needs to be shut down for at least a week or two.
Any thoughts on the bullpen at this point in the season?
Oh, and by the way, going to sethspeaks.com instead of sethspeaks.net was an, ahem, experience. Check it out if you want to wonder what the world is coming to.
The bullpen needs help. There, I said it. We have seen, over the past few weeks, the decline of a few of the former studs of our bullpen, ending in the release of Juan Rincon, who was considered by some to be the best setup guy in baseball a few years ago. Now we are seeing Jesse Crain, Craig Breslow, and Matt Guerrier start to have some real struggles. This comes from overuse more than anything else.
Why has this season been so hard on the good pitchers in our bullpen? Because the long relief and mop-up roles have been handled so poorly. A lot of this comes down to poor bullpen management by Gardy. Last night, in the seventh, he brought in Bass after Perkins had scuttled a five-run lead; the Twins led by only one. When he failed, like everyone knew he would, Gardy had to use two other relievers to end the inning, neither of which did well. “Where is CRAIN?!” I was shouting (he pitched Sunday, but I thought that he had the fastball that would be able to shut the M’s down). I would have said to put Slowey in for an inning if necessary (it was his day for a bullpen session, I’m pretty sure). By the way, I think my neighbors hate me for screaming at the game at about 1am (EST). It’s okay, screw them, I’m moving later this month anyway. At least I didn’t wake up the wife. That would have been less than good.
Now, I like Brian Bass. He seems like a nice enough guy, and he had that whole “Good at Baseball” thing going his way at the beginning of the season. But then again, at the beginning of the season, the Twins were a rebuilding team with no hope of getting to the postseason. A long reliever with mediocre (at best) stuff is right at home on a rebuilding team. However, once the Twins started contending, it was like flipping a switch… Bass became “Kerosene Boy,” sidekick to “Gas Can Rincon.” Bass would be brought into an inappropriately high-leverage situation and would promptly give up two or three runs. Wait. Didn’t he do that last night, too?
By David Joles, Star Tribune (what this picture doesn't show is the ball flying over the fence immediately afterward)
It’s time to cut bait on Bass as a major league reliever, at least for this season. If the Twins put him on waivers, he will clear easily; he has done a fine job of lowering his value so far that no other team will likely take him. Then, he can go back to Rochester for a couple months, then mayble play in the Arizona Fall League or something like that to try to get some of his stuff back.
But who takes over for Bass? There are a few options in AAA: Humber, Mulvey, and Korecky (at least at this point). Korecky was up earlier this season and performed admirably, including being the first pitcher to get a hit at the Dome since the DH came to be. His stuff likely isn’t major league quality, unfortunately. He likely will not have a long or storied career in the majors. However, he would be an improvement over Bass, whose sinker doesn’t sink anymore and whose change-up has essentially become batting practice, if only in that most teams haven’t seen him. I would like to see Mulvey or Humber up here, but they need to stay stretched out in case of an injury to one of our young starters. We’ll see them in September when the rosters expand (for sure Humber, maybe on Mulvey, since he isn’t on the 40-man right now).
So that’s Bass. What about the rest of the Bullpen? “Twitch” Nathan’s ninth-inning role is, for some reason, sacrosanct and can’t pitch more than the one inning. Irritating.
Dennys Reyes has put up some good numbers this year, while allowing over 50% of inherited runners to score, which isn’t really what a lefty specialist should do. For some reason, he has generally been unable to pitch a whole inning without giving up a run or two, so he needs to stay the loogy specialist. Big Sweat was sick last night, and was not available to pitch. He is day-to-day for tonight’s game. He likely won’t be re-signed at the end of this season, when he becomes a free agent. It is possible that the Twins will pick up a supplementary draft pick for him, but no one will know until Elias ranks the pitchers. Don’t hold your breath.
Craig Breslow has been stellar for the greatest part of the summer, but he has been battling back stiffness, and wouldn’t have pitched at all yesterday had Reyes not been sent back to the hotel with food poisoning. But he has a relatively deceptive, yet minimalistic, and JD Drew said, back in spring training, that “I don’t want to face Breslow. He doesn’t look like he has much, but you don’t even see his pitches coming.” For a look at his mechanics (a few years ago at the futures game, Fenway Park):
Jesse Crain has simply been overused his first year after coming back from injury. Once I mentioned Crain’s injuries (torn labrum and rotator cuff) to my physical therapist without mentioning his name, and he looked at me with a knowing stare and asked how long he had been retired. When I told him that Crain was back for spring training only 9 months after surgery, he didn’t believe me until I showed him some websites. A torn labrum is the hardest injury to come back from. A torn ulnar ligament is succesfully replaced 80% of the time with Tommy John surgery (ulnar collateral ligament replacement surgery), but a torn labrum still ends careers almost 40% of the time. The fact that he goes up there and throws 96-97 is incredible, but Gardy has been overusing him, and he needs to work less in order to preserve his shoulder. Next year he will probably be able to take on a full workload, but this year he needs a break. Once (and if) Crain gets his control back, he will be the most prototypical 7th-inning/setup guy the Twins will have.
Matt Guerrier has also just been overworked. His stuff is not overpowering; he has a good curveball, but the way he is able to be effective is to locate and mix his pitches, which he usually does very well. However, he isn’t a setup guy. If I had my way (and an injury-less Pat Neshek), Guerrier would take over Bass’ job; it is much more what he is suited for.
Boof Bonser is only a member of the bullpen at this point because he would be claimed if placed on waivers, and the Twins want to get something for him; they could not get a deal done before the trade deadline last week. It seems that the Twins might have asked too much. However, if the Twins make the postseason, I am willing to bet he won’t be on the roster. Boof pulled a Rincon before the trade deadline: he did his damnedest to try to lower his trade value so much that no one would take him. The Twins should put him in games when the Twins trail by seven runs or more and tell him to give up five or so runs. If he could do that a few times, they could get him down to Rochester through waivers.
Now that I’ve looked at the current bullpen, who is missing? Oh, yeah. “Sideshow” Pat Neshek. Neshek has been the team’s high-leverage situational guy for the last year and a half, excepting when he was shut down at the end of last season with shoulder weakness. Neshek had a rough start this year, but had righted the ship when he went down with a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament. The hope is that it will heal if he doesn’t use it for a few months, and he should be getting another MRI this month to check on its progress. There is a slight chance we could see him this year (or so the Twins brass says), but it is next to nothing. Had Neshek been in the ‘Pen last night, he would have been brought in after Perkins screwed up and asked to slam the door on the Mariners, something he likely would have been able to do.
*Tear.* I miss Sideshow Pat.
In all fairness, it wasn’t the Twins’ fault that they sucked the big one tonight. It is ESPN’s fault. Has anyone else noticed that whenever Baseball Tonight does a five-to-ten minute segment on a particular team that is even mildly complimentary, the team goes out there and gets absolutely clobbered? Well, last night, BBTN had a nice seven-minute section on the Twins, in which they raved about the Twins doing everything right and then they all confidently predicted that the Twins would win the division. Well, it wouldn’t do to try to prove them right, since the Twins are actually pretty bashful. Hence, Ka-BOOM!! The explosion in the seventh followed. By the way, the second time they showed BBTN was just before the sixth inning, when the Mariners scored their first run.
Boo on them.
New on my List:
The Mariners announcers. Not for anything they did, but because the play-by-play guy’s voice is like nails on a chalkboard to my sensitive psyche. It was a painful night even before the seventh inning.
Mike Lamb’s beard. Whenever I see it, a little evil voice inside my head goes “SHAVE IT OFF SHAVE IT OFF SHAVE IT OFF.” However, it might be jealousy, because he sort of makes it look good, whereas my beard… not so much.
The joker at MLB.tv that decided that I could somehow pick up the Twins game from here in DC, despite the fact that all the cool kids out here were watching the Phillies get DESTROYED by Arizona. I couldn’t adjust my aerials (does anyone still use these? anyone?) sufficiently to pick up the game I wanted to watch. So I had to listen to the radio version (does anyone still listen to games on the radio? anyone? by choice?) and imagine Carlos Gomez not getting on base.
Me. For not thinking of criticizing Gomez prior to yesterday. If I had, maybe his slump might have lasted only 10 or 11 at-bats instead of, oh, 21. Which was instantly followed by an 0-for-1. Anyone care to predict the next streak? I, of course, write this with much love, in the hope that continued tough love will bring back the bunting, energetic, unpredictable, and slightly psychotic Loose Cannon 1 that we all miss.
The Tigers announcers. Yes, I am still angry at them for pronouncing “Guerrier” as “Geh-rear.” In all honestly, Fox might have saved me a nervous breakdown from hearing them butcher that name. Not having to hear them mis-pronounce “Neshek” is the one upside to the injury I have found so far. HOWEVER, at least they don’t pronounce “Morneau” like “Mor-ney-oh.”
Josh Hamilton. It is not okay to be both getting more RBIs than Morneau and fail to hit the homer you needed to tie the Pale Hoses last night. Don’t make me add Ian Kinsler and Milton Bradley, who both did okay, but could have done better.
Denise Richards. Because she irritates me, and she somehow expected her teenage nephew NOT to see her naked after she posed for Playboy.
Game Notes
Wow. I really thought that the ‘Pen was about to blow the lead this game. I can’t fault Gardy for his management of the bullpen tonight. I would have liked to hear (remember, I didn’t see any of this) Baker go a little further, but then I realized he threw 102 pitches.
Still, though, couldn’t Crain have been relied upon to pitch to more than one batter? I am impressed that he has pitched in three straight games, but still… Crain is a big boy. More than 1/3 of an inning? Pretty please? The fact that he didn’t do so hot yesterday means nothing.
I was VERY happy to see Guerrier get a day off today. However, his absence led to some craziness that I did not approve of, which consisted of…
Bringing in Brian Bass with a 1-run lead against Marcus Thames, who, with 17 home runs, would have had no problem knocking a pitch (from a pitcher who has given up a home run every 5 2/3 innings (or so)) over the fence. Luckily, Bass got the out.
Joe Nathan. When you come in, I have a falling feeling int he pit of my stomach. But you have been all good and stuff recently, so I approve.
Tomorrow’s Game – Lineup:
Remember last time Gomez and Casilla faced Verlander, and he took it sort of personally that they bunted against him (4 times)? With that in mind, I propose the following lineup:
Gomez
Casilla
Span
Punto
Mauer
Morneau
Kubel
Young
Buscher
Can we please bunt with the first five batters that Verlander sees and then we can all sit back and watch for his temper to blow? Pretty sure one of our guys will get thrown at, but I love a meltdown. Especially one that the pitcher shouldn’t be having.
So, everyone knows the story of this game. Joe, having recovered from inflammation in his sacroiliac joint, came up and blasted a massive home run. If you were at all like me, you were watching the game and stood up and cheered like he had just launched a home run in Game Seven of the world series. After my neighbors below pounded on the ceiling, my wife looked at me like I was crazy, and my dog ran barking out of the room, I realized that I may have overreacted. In hindsight, though, I think that was exactly the correct way to respond. Joe’s return to the lineup not only won that specific game, as he did go 2-3 with a walk, while scoring three runs, but it also galvanized the Twins, and began the slow, yet steady, march to the post-season.
Call to the 'Pen 