The New Beginning

Okay, fine, so it isn’t really the beginning of the season, but it is the beginning of what I consider to be the most important era to be introduced this season: the era of outdoor baseball. Today’s game was glorious to behold, even though I did miss chunks of it (3 CT is a really stupid time to start a game. What were they thinking?!) to pick up my wife from work and also missed the entire pre-show, the game was glorious, and was a really fitting introduction to what is almost universally regarded as one of the best five ball-parks in the American League, if not MLB. I’m just saying – it is going to be a bit chillier at night, but the players are big boys and they can handle going out and playing a cold game for several thousand dollars (for the cheapest ones, of course). Think about your broader fanbase, people! It’s estimated that March Madness costs employers 1.8 billion dollars – this game probably cost MN employers at least a million. Priorities.

Of course, out here on the East Coast I had to watch the game on ESPN. Don’t get me wrong, I occasionally prefer to watch the game on the tee-vee rather than on the computer via my somewhat balky internet connection (and it isn’t the awesome kind of balky, like Carl Pavano in the first inning, where he got away with a likely balk because his move was so good), but man, ESPN is just a fresh, new kind of hell. As I posted in a comment on Topper’s blog earlier, if I had to take a choice between Skip Caray (he of the fisted balls and the “line drive, base hit, caught for the out!” call during game 163) and the ESPN people, man, I’d probably grab a pencil and puncture my eardrums so I wouldn’t have to deal with the misery. So, that was the first problem.

And, in reality, it was a problem I was willing to accept today, mostly because neither Jon Miller nor Joe Morgan was on the broadcast (thank God) and because they spent a LOT of time pointing out the really cool things about Target Field. I can’t wait until the next chance I have to make a trip to MN to get to the new park – unfortunately, won’t be until August at the earliest. Dumb Bar exam.

Anyway, the Twins started out with a pretty impressive victory over the Red Sox, who right now are only barely behind the Yankees on the official Call to the ‘Pen scale of evilness.™ However, the fact that they really seemed to go out of their way to make sure that the Twins won mends a lot of bridges to me, and has resulted in a slight reduction in the Attributed Evilness score factor, though their other ratings are still high. Marco Scutaro, in the first inning, managed to get caught stealing before Pavano delivered home. Big Papi continued to hit like a wee little papoose. John Lester went to a three-ball count with more people than you can shake a stick at (seriously, you try shaking a stick at 13 people. Can’t be done – your arm gets tired).

So, your heros and zeroes:

• Hero of the Day: Carl Pavano – I have never had a great deal of faith in Pavano, but in order to demonstrate my faith before the opener, I picked him up for a spot start for my fantasy team. Of course, he was brilliant. I think I must have, to a certain extent, internalized the Yankees’ complaints about Pavano. Either way, he was brilliant today: 1 ER on 4 hits and 1BB, with 4K. I’ll take that any day! WPA: .231
• Runners up: Jon Rauch – continuing to remind us that the closer role is constructed to be more important than it actually is: Rauch makes me far more nervous than Nathan ever did, and I’m just waiting for him to have an implosion. But for now, I won’t complain about 5-for-5 in save opportunities. Jason Kubel and Denard Span – The Dude abided in a major way, getting the first home run in a regular season Target Field game, while Span did the same for bases on balls, stolen bases, and runs scored.
• ZERO of the Day: I just can’t do it. If I had to pick somone , it would be Mountie, but I’m not going to. It was just to amazing a day and I can imagine it was a truly wonderful experience for all those that were there!

Tomorrow is the first off day of the young season, and I hope to put up something that looks like a post tomorrow evening. For now the hat standings:

Twins Record: 6-2

• Blue TC logo: 0-2 (both of these were cases where I couldn’t find the one I had meant to wear. Sigh)
• “M” logo: 3-0
• Red TC logo: 2-0
• Champs hat: 1-0

Game 3 – A Petition for Span to Re-grow his Man-Beard

Isn’t baseball season fun?

I’ll admit that I have never been very high on Carl Pavano. This might be because of the simple fact of his injury-devastated tenure with the Yankees or the fact that I always seemed to get most involved in the games that he lost. Either way, I know his peripherals from last year indicated he had big things in store, but I still mentally steel myself for a rough night when he’s going to pitch. So: I am proud to say that feeling was entirely wrong last night, though it sure felt right for the first two innings or so.

That said, i have figured out why Denard Span is having such a rough time. Please compare the following pictures; one from last season, one from two days ago:

Okay, so I couldn’t find a good picture of Span from this season so far. The point is that last year Span sported a shaggy man-beard, which I think may have been the source of his power. Now, he’s rocking the basic Torii Hunter Goatee, which is apparently not suiting him. Two things:

1. I know Span has a connection with Torii Hunter, but time has demonstrated that Torii is just not someone that we want him to mimic, with the possible exception of the occasional outfield catch. Everything else? Not so much.
2. If Span is indeed some weird post-modern version of Samson, there is only one way to solve his problems – a combination of Cuddyer magicking his razors away and a continued commitment to being Good at Baseball.

I first noticed this problem during the broadcast of last night’s game, and needless to say I just about fell off my chair. Denard, bring back the Man-Beard!

Despite the sadness that is the lack of Man-Beard, there were some important, clutch performers yesterday night:

• Neck Tat picked up his second save, which ties him atop the MLB leaderboard at this point in the season. This save was a bit tougher, as he gave up a couple hits and an ER on his way. However, as Aaron Gleeman often says, pretty much any idiot can successfully not cough up the lead when you’re up 3. WPA: .051.
• Matt Guerrier was quality, cutting through the heart of the California Angels of Anaheim that are also from Los Angeles’ lineup in his 8th inning. WPA: .062.
• JJ Hardy continues to be decent at the plate (another home run and two hits) and shockingly good on defense (his arm is an amazing cannon). WPA: .049
• Twins Territory once again collectively crapped its pants when Nick Punto hit a triple. WPA: .051
• Justin Morneau hit another home run, leading to the creation of the Twitter hash tag #allyourmaplesyruparebelongtotheminnesotatwins and a WPA of .212.
• HERO OF THE DAY: Carl Pavano went 7 innings (the first Twins starter to do so), giving up only 6 hits and 1 ER, with no walks issued and 6 Ks. Beautiful outing. I need to think of a nickname for him. Squinty? I’m working on it.

Unfortunately, some of the Twins crapped the bed yesterday as well:

• Michael Cuddyer was very nearly picked off first base again. Other than that, he was unremarkable. WPA: -.019
• Orlando Hudson had another terrible night. He’ll fix it eventually, but man… WPA: -.074
• Jim Thome was in the lineup for Kubel for some unknown reason, and he did not acquit himself well, striking out three times in four at-bats. WPA: -.067

Last night was the debut of the “M” logo hat. I haven’t had time to decide what hat tonight will demand, but I’m leaning toward the red “TC.” Thoughts?

Tonight’s Game: Twins, 2-1 (Kevin Slowey, 0-0, 0.00) at Angels, 1-2 (Joel Pineiro, 0-0, 0.00). 9:05 CST.

Game 2: Neck Tat makes his Closer Debut

(This is the first in what I hope will become a daily or near-daily series that gives a brief roundup of the heroes and zeros of the prior night’s game, with reference to the WPA graphs at Fangraphs.com. Comments on this feature? Email me at eric.donald.olson@gmail.com or message/follow me on twitter at @calltothepen)

Wow, what a game. (Game Graph Here)

Yes, I know that it wasn’t actually that amazing or anything, but I am still overly excited to have a win going forward. Maybe we return the  Los Angeles, California Angels of Anaheim’s favor from 2008, when they came into the Metrodome and took three of four in the season-opening series. But now I’m getting ahead of myself.

Last night, the Angels set a Guinness World record for the largest gathering of people wearing blankets with sleeves. In order to accomplish this, they gave everyone that came an angels-themed Snuggie (note: they weren’t allowed to call them snuggies on the air, because Snuggies are made only by SnuggieCorp (or whatever it’s called),  so these were more like Slankets or something, since they were off-brand. But I digress). Dick Bremer had his first curmudgeon-y moment of the year when he complained for about five minutes about Bert wearing the Angels-supplied and -themed snuggie, whilst refusing to do so on his own. It was a very surreal moment. It will go down, in my mind, as one of the most surreal moments in baseball I have witnessed, as well as one of the single dumbest PR stunts ever.

Last night saw a strong effort from many players. The Heroes:

• Nick Blackburn had the highest WPA (win probability added) at .149, with a strong, but very Blackburn-esque performance: 6.2 innings, 8 hits, 4 BB, 3 ER, 4 K. The down note for Jolly Roger was that he set a new career high (or low) for walks, including the first two batters in the game. However, he bounced back and had a strong performance.
• Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau were the clear heroes on offense. Mauer, with a WPA of .109, hit a 2-run home run in the first inning, while Justin Morneau hit a solo home run in the third, singled, and walked, resulting in a WPA of .85.
• Denard Span got the gorilla/rally monkey off his back by getting his first hit and first walk.
• HERO OF THE DAY: Jon Rauch made the punditry’s job much easier when he easily obtained his first Twins save, striking out two in a perfect inning. Could any decent reliever have done the same? Sure. But he’s the hero because now we don’t have to spend today arguing about whether he is the right choice (he’s not, but that’s a story for another day), as we would if he had blown his first attempt.

Unfortunately, it wasn’t all fun and games for the Twins. The night’s Zeros:

• Delmon Young managed to drive in a run on a Sacrifice fly and single, but he still managed to raise my ire by absolutely air-mailing a throw over third baseman Nick Punto by a good five feet (it would have been the correct height had Nick Punto been standing on Chris Cates‘ shoulders). Thanks, Delmon, for reminding me why you lost the “D” in your name last year, and why I generally refer to you as ‘elmon.
• JJ Hardy had his first Home Run as a Twin, a solo shot, but he also ended up grounding into two double plays en route to earning a WPA of -.085, which basically negates Morneau’s contribution.
• Orlando Hudson compiled a -.101 WPA for the game, after going 0-fer, while scoring a run after reaching on an error and leaving 4 on-base. Step it up, O-Dawg.
• ZERO OF THE DAY: Second Base Umpire Adrian Johnson, who blew such an obvious call on a pickoff attempt on Michael Cuddyer by Angels catcher Jeff Mathis that it caused a Twitsplosion before the replay was even shown. So, Cuddyer was way off second base on a ball in the dirt, Mathis recovered and gunned it to Second Baseman Howie Kendrick. The throw clearly beat Cuddyer to the bag, but the tag was not applied for a good half a second, which allowed Cuddyer to get both feet and his right knee on the bag before the tag was applied. It was an ugly call, and neither Cuddyer nor Ron Gardenhire argued it nearly enough, in my humble opinion.

Tonight’s Game: Twins, 1-1 (PP: Carl Pavano, 0-0, 0.00) at Angels, 1-1 (Ervin Santana, 0-0, 0.00). First Pitch: 9:05 CST.

Tonight’s selected Twins hat? Navy Blue, with “M” logo. Last night’s debut for the AL Central Division Champs 2009 hat was a success, so we’ll see if the selected opening day hat can make a comeback after missing it’s first start.

Important Game #3: Looking up from the Valley

Here’s a little refresher on the series, before I begin:

Basically, the premise of the series is that certain games have an effect that is far greater than their mere impact on the win-loss column. These games are mentally and physically definitive of a season, and before the new season begins, by looking back and remembering and feeling the emotions of last season one more time, we can understand what happened, what went wrong, and most importantly, what went right. So, climb aboard the side-burn express, and keep your hands, arms, feet, heads, and all other extremities inside the vehicles at all times as we embark on one final excursion through the highs and lows of last season.

September 6: After a Crippling Loss to the Indians, the Twins find themselves 7 games down with 28 games to play.

Courtesy of MLB.com.

Two of the last four years, the Twins did not make the playoffs. In 2007, well, the team just wasn’t ever that good. Joe Mauer spent half the season dealing with varying injuries, and from day one the pitching situation, well, sucked. When your team starts the season with Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson, you don’t really have a right to expect much. In 2008, I came to the conclusion that Jim Thome is evil when he homered for the only run in game 163 (for which I have not forgiven him). However, that was also the Twins’ fault for very nearly getting swept by the ROYALS the last weekend of the season to have to play game 163. In the other two of the last four years, the Twins have had to come back from spectacular deficits, only to win the division on the last possible day (Thanks, Royals, for 2006). The rub of both of those two seasons, is that at some point both teams found themselves in the valley, looking up, Twins fans cursing the Tigers and wondering if the Wild, Timberwolves, or Vikings would be any good (maybe, no, and it’s a crapshoot, respectively). However, both times, the Twins managed to come back. However, unlike 2006, we had little reason to expect it this time around.

Partial Division standings as of Sept. 6, 2009. Ugly, right? The Twins: down 7 with 28 to play. Captured from MLB.com.

The Twins had just finished losing two of three to the lowly Indians, who had just finished trading everyone with value, and had just wrapped up a 14-14 August. In a sense, that’s all I personally expected from the Twins at that point: a mediocre, maybe 50-50 record the rest of the way. In fact, that’s exactly what the Twins were: a mediocre, 50-50 team (see inset image). Given the White Sox’s recent hot streak, I more expected them to catch the Twins than for the Twins to catch Detroit. Of course, the White Sox ended up spluttering to a 79-83 record after contesting for first place for most of the summer.

I chose this game for a very specific reason, despite the fact that it came just a couple days after another similar loss: it embodied one of two problems that the Twins had all season long. The first problem, the one not present in this game was that when the offense was firing on all cylinders, the pitching wasn’t running at all (see, for example, the entire home Los Angeles Angels series in late July/early August). The ERA of the starting staff last season (yes, I know ERA is flawed, and no, I don’t care) was, I believe, 26th in the majors. The bullpen was very good most of the season, although there was a Crainwreck for most of the first half of the season and the Twins insisted on keeping a mediocre-at-best long reliever on staff all season.

Brendan Harris doing an apt impression of the whole offense's decision avoid the ball with their bats. Courtesy MLB.com.

The other kind of game, and the one that was so confounding, given the excessive number of runs the Twins scored last year, are the games where the pitchers did their jobs, but the offense took a day off. These games, generally weren’t against good pitchers (those I could understand), but against such luminaries as David Huff, he of the 5.61 ERA last season. Nothing against Huff, of course, I’m sure he was doing his best to keep the Twins under wraps. Of course, it helps when the lineup that produced 5.01 runs per game last year on average managed to score 1 run on THREE hits. There were also four walks, but that’s hardly the point. The Twins offense coughed this one up.

Courtesy MLB.com

And it was a shame they did so. Nick Blackburn pitched a Nick Blackburn kind of game. He gave up a handful of hits (7) and a handful of runs (3), while generally keeping the Indians’ bats in check for his 6 2/3 innings of work. However, a pitcher like Nick will not win many games without a strong offensive presence to back him up, and Blackbeard’s buccaneers simply couldn’t get anything going at all. The one run came on a single by Denard Span, who drove in Nick Punto, who had doubled in the previous plate appearance. However, the game itself was a disappointment, as the season itself felt, at least after Important Game #3. However, there were still many better days to come, including the upcoming Important Game #2.

Important Game #6: Slowey Out for the Year

(Note: I’ll be posting several articles that I had partially written since Friday but didn’t have time to finish. Please check back often for the rest! As, always, I’ll be tweeting @calltothepen. Follow me there or subscribe to my posts using the button on the sidebar!)

Here’s a quick refresher about the series:

Basically, the premise of the series is that certain games have an effect that is far greater than their mere impact on the win-loss column. These games are mentally and physically definitive of a season, and before the new season begins, by looking back and remembering and feeling the emotions of last season one more time, we can understand what happened, what went wrong, and most importantly, what went right. So, climb aboard the side-burn express, and keep your hands, arms, feet, heads, and all other extremities inside the vehicles at all times as we embark on one final excursion through the highs and lows of last season.

Courtesy MLB.com

July 3rd: Twins lose in extras 11-9, then suffer a far worse loss the next day.

This is the only one of the games in on the list that are important, not only for what happened in the game itself, but from news that blossomed based on a seed planted during the game. This was, as the title implies the final game of 2009 that was pitched by our erstwhile and potential ace, Kevin Slowey. But more about that in a little while. First, a discussion of the Important game itself.

The 2009 Twins were perhaps the most hot-and-cold team I can remember following. They would seemingly go for weeks at a time without a quality start from their pitchers (quality = good, not the meaningless counting stat), then turn it on and win a bunch in a row. Overall, the offense was somehow acceptable, despite the fact that their obscenely high batting average w/ runners in scoring position in 2008 came back down to earth, and they did it with barely a warm body in the second position in the batting order. The batting average, OBP, and SLG% was the worst of all the second hitters in the majors. However, as good as the offense was on the season, the pitching staff was shaky from the start, in large part stemming from some extremely poor personnel management.

For whatever odd reason, the Twins broke camp with Luis Ayala. Ayala is a topic for another day and possibly his own post, but suffice to say I can’t fathom why the Twins signed a sinkerballer whose fastballs have never really sunk to be middle-relief/low-leverage setup guy when he thought he was signing a contract for high-lev setup or closing if Joe Nathan went down. So, Ayala wasted a roster spot for three months. The Twins also brought Phil Humber north, perhaps hoping beyond hope that he would be able to contribute better at the MLB level than he had in Rochester. He didn’t, and was released April 17 to make space for Juan Morillo, who spent all of a week or so in the majors before being sent to the minors and eventually going to Japan. R.A. Dickey also came to Minny, and proved to be valuable, if uber-hittable. He also was released eventually. The trend continued all year: rather than trading or doing anything to get a serviceable relief pitcher (up until the Jon Rauch trade and the Ron Mahay signing), the Twins acted incredibly stupid. The Twins lost Craig Breslow, perhaps the greatest unheralded hero of the 2008 squad, to waivers because they were impatient with his good-but-not-as-steller-as-last-year numbers, only to bring up Sean Henn. Face it. Stupid moves abounded. More on this in another post later this week.

But the biggest problem was the starters, three of the five of which regressed significantly. Kevin Slowey was on pace to win 20 games before he was lost for the season (see below), but his peripherals were not-so-sparkling. Scott “Timmy” Baker started the season hurt, then lost six straight. Francisco Liriano lost the ability to handle the strike zone. Glen Perkins started brilliant, then came down with a phantom-like, mysterious shoulder injury that no one but him could locate. Only Nick Blackburn was rock-steady, with a nearly identical season to 2008. This forced the Twins to rely on a hodge-podge of Dickey, Armando Gabino, Anthony Swarzak, Brian Duensing, and Jeff Manship to start fourth-and-fifth games. Duensing even had the honor of being murdered by the Yankees in the first game of the playoffs. Anyway, the whole idea I’m trying to put out here is how bad a shape the starting staff was last year.

Inge hit by a pitch to the jersey. Deja Vu much? Image Courtesy MLB.com

The game on July 3rd started out disastrously. Kevin Slowey gave up six runs in the first three innings, before he was removed due to soreness in his wrist. Brian Duensing came in and made a valiant effort to hold the line, going 3.2 innings, giving up just one run. The Twins offense did their best to back up the Twins starter, and managed to tie the game at 7 based on a run each in the third and fourth innings before exploding for five in the sixth. The Twins brought in Bobby Keppel to keep it tied when Duensing indicated that his arm was about to fall off, and, somewhat surprisingly, he continued his scoreless streak with 1 1/3 inning. He was followed by perfect outings from Joe Nathan, Matt Guerrier, and Jose Mijares, all of whom pitched scoreless innings (or two). The Tigers and Twins matched runs in the 14th. At this point, the game felt just slightly epic. I wondered if the game would ever be over.

Brendan Harris hits a triple, his only hit. Image Courtesy MLB.com

Offensively, the heroes included Denard Span, who was 5 for 8 with a triple, a run scored, and an RBI, Joe Mauer, who was 2 for 6 with a walk and an RBI, Delmon Young, who was 3 for 6 with his third home run of the season, Michael Cuddyer, who was 3 for 8 w/ 2 RBI, and Justin Morneau went 3 for 7 with a walk and an RBI. Somewhat unsurprisingly, Carlos Gomez, Matt Tolbert, Brian Buscher, and Nick Punto went a combined 0 for 9, with 2 walks (both by Punto).

Pitching a game that lasts 16 innings can be tough, but it becomes excruciating when the starter leaves after 3 innings. Dickey was the last available pitcher of the night, and I think he was literally in the game until his arm fell off or Michael Cuddyer was able to convince Gardy that his sinker was good enough to get outs. Unfortunately, the Twins offense wasn’t able to win the game in any of the preceding 6 extra innings, and the Tigers mauled Dickey for three runs in the top of the 16th. The Twins’ comeback fell short, and they fell back to 2.5 games behind the Tigers in the Central.

As hard as the loss was to bear, the next day the Twins got even worse news: that Kevin Slowey would be heading to the disabled list. Though Slowey had had some rough times, when he was on, he had been arguably the best pitcher on the Twins the past two seasons. He was originally put on the DL for a “strained wrist”; the hope was that he’d be back in a few weeks. Unfortunately, the wrist never felt better, and it was eventually discovered that he had a broken wrist, and probably had since being struck by a line drive off the bat of Juan Uribe in his final start of 2008. He had surgery and ended with two pins in his wrist, which even at the beginning of this season were still causing him grief. For it’s ability to impact the Twins even this year, July 3rd joins the countdown as Important Game #6.

Important Games #8 – September 23 (Twins win, 9-3)

I had a hard time ranking the games at the end of the season that really determined the Twins’ fate? Sure, it would make sense for the top seven games to all be in the Twins-Sox series and the Twins-Royals series, plus the tiebreaker. However, I decided that not only would it be boring, it would be self-defeating. There were many more important days in the 2008 season, and for different reasons. There were also a lot of really dramatic games that really weren’t that important in the long run. I mean, remember that KC game where Delmon Young did his best to lose the game on an attempted foot-first sliding catch that ended in an inside-the-parker? And then the Twins came back to win it? That was really dramatic game, and one of the worst to watch (at least, after the seventh inning, but it really wasn’t important, other than reinforcing that Delmon Young couldn’t field.

And what about games that resulted in players getting cut? I could pull out the last game where Livan pitched or Monroe hit before they were cut August first, but those games weren’t very important overall (I made a big deal about Rincon’s last game, but that game was important in and of itself). I could talk about either of the games where Lamb or Everett were cut. Again, not important. Brian Bass also sucked, but he was cut after another game that may or not make an appearance on the countdown.

This is not one of those games. By this time, the Twins roster was established, for better or for worse. This is the first of that momentous series against the ChiSox.

Box Scores and summary after the break.

On the Outfield (and my new dog)

One of the largest issues the Twins faced going into this off-season was what exactly to do with their outfield/DH surplus. No one that reads this will likely be unfamiliar with the issue here, but I’ll run through it one time, just so everyone knows where I am coming from.

The Twins have five players (Carlos Gomez, Denard Span, Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, and Delmon Young) for four positions (the three outfield positions and the designated hitter). Last year, the Twins started the year with Denard Span in AAA, which was almost required, due to the fact that the fans would have absolutely mutinied had the Twins broken camp without a single one of the prospects that had come over in the Santana trade. Hell, I was almost ready to mutiny even with Gomez on the team. Kubel, who runs sort of like RonDL did, except slower, was to take the DH job against right-handed starters. Delmon Young was supposed to be the Twins’ right-handed power threat of the future (and present), and was to switch from right to left field to replace Leeeeeew and RonDL and Kubel. Finally, the Twins’ pseudo-right-handed power threat of the past and (sort of) present, Cuddyer, was to stay in right field, where his lack of range wouldn’t be a problem, because Gomez would be Superman enough to cover essentially the whole outfield. The DH job against southpaws would be filled by Craig Monroe.

Well, that arrangement lasted about as long as it took me to type that last paragraph. On opening night last year, the Twins faced Jared Weaver, a right-hander. Who was DH-ing? Craig Monroe. It was a sign of things to come.

Delmon Young very quickly proved that he couldn’t play the outfield, couldn’t hit righties, and, well, had no power.

Carlos Gomez proved that he could indeed cover the whole outfield, but couldn’t hit anything that wasn’t a fastball, and when he got on-base, he could steal second, so long as he didn’t get picked off or forget to tag up on a routine fly ball. He also didn’t walk. Ever.

Craig Monroe produced quite a few homers. He produced nothing else, though, except an ability to keep Kubel from getting at-bats.

Jason Kubel was solid, except he only got to prove it every other day, even when the Twins would face several days of righties in a row.

Michael Cuddyer showed a strong arm, an ability to play off the Baggie, and an uncanny ability to get injured.

When Cuddyer went on the DL, Denard Span was called up; he stuck rather hard. Span was probably THE bright spot of the outfield last year, at least at the plate. It took a few months, but after the all-star break, Span took over the lead-off spot and Gomez moved to ninth. Gomez actually thrived in the nine spot, hitting better and taking more pitches than he ever had in the lead-off spot.

Craig Monroe went away on August 1, only half a season too late. Randy Ruiz took his place, but got hardly any at-bats, even against lefties. Ruiz is gone to minor league free agency, so we are back to five spots.

Kubel will never play the outfield. His knee can’t take extended periods of time on the field, and he is too valuable at DH. His role is pretty much assured. He’ll be the DH against all right-handed pitchers (unless some other player has a killer history against the pitcher) and about a third or so of southpaws (the ones he has a decent history against).

So Kubel is set up. The other four are much more complicated to figure. I have my personal preference (Gomez and Span in the field every day, Cuddy and Young switching back and forth between right field, the bench, and DH), but let’s try to be semi-objective. I am going to give each of the outfielders a ranking on a few areas of 1-10, which are, of course, subjective ratings. I really can’t win. But here we go.

10 is good, 1 is bad. Power is self-explanatory. Plate approach refers to batting average, willingness to take walks, eye, etc. Defensive Range refers to the ground the player covers in the outfield.  Arm Strength is also pretty clear, though it especially refers to the ability to convert an outfield assist. Defensive skill is the ability to make plays, both in and out of zone. Other Considerations refers to intangibles, like if the player is a fan favorite, if they have a huge contract that they should play on, etc. Note that all of these numbers are relative only to the other Twins outfielders, not any sort of a league average. Please Pardon formatting errors; I am really getting frustrated at WordPress.

Delmon Young

Plate Approach	Power	Overall Offense	Defensive Range	Arm Strength	Defensive Skill	Overall Defense	Other Considerations
4	7	6	4	8	4	5.5	6.5*

*Young was once considered one of the top players of the future, and was the reason that they gave up Garza, who was honestly on his way out at that point anyway. The Twins are almost desperate for him to develop some power, and will probably throw some extra at-bats his way. Gardenhire also made comments over the offseason to the effect that Young might be the odd man out. Note on power: I am factoring a bit of his ceiling and rookie year in here, not just last year.

So, Young is pretty much terrible in the field. He can throw people out at third and the plate, but first he has to get there. Two of the only four defensive plays that I remember very clearly from last year involved Young coming up with an epic fail that handed over the lead (the other two are from that one game in Cleveland where Gomez hurt his back catching a ball against the wall and then one inning later Span tried to make the same play and also ended up on his back on the warning track). I’ll give him an average score of 6.

Michael Cuddyer

Plate Approach	Power	Overall Offense	Defensive Range	Arm Strength	Defensive Skill	Overall Defense	Other Considerations
6	7	6.5	5	8.5	6	7	7*

*Cuddyer has been a fan favorite since ‘06. I can’t remember going to a game that didn’t have multiple someones holding signs that said something like “I want to get Cuddly-er with Cuddyer. Add that to the ridiculous (and ill-advised) contract the (almost) 30-year-old received last year, and the Twins have motivation to have Cuddyer play every day. Let’s hope he doesn’t.

Cuddyer is not all-bad in the field. At this point in his and Young’s career, he is probably an equal to Young’s offense, though his offense is heading in the opposite direction. In the field, he doesn’t have much range, but makes up for it by getting great reads off the bat and playing very well off the Baggie. If he were placed in left field, he would be lost, but he’s fine in right most days. I’ll give him an average of 6.5.

Carlos Gomez

Plate Approach	Power	Overall Offense	Defensive Range	Arm Strength	Defensive Skill	Overall Defense	Other Considerations
4	5	4.5	10	7	8	8.5	8*

*Gomez is the one (sort-of) major-league-ready player from the Santana trade. That gives the Twins extra motivation to keep him playing at the major-league level. Some bloggers have predicted that he will end up in AAA to start the season, but I don’t think that will help him get a better eye for the ball. He is also probably, short of Mauer and Morneau, the biggest fan favorite at the moment. The pictures I have seen of Twins Fest have his autograph line twice as long as the next longest. Gomez is also, short of Nick Punto, the best gift a pitcher could ask for. See here for Slowey’s statement on Punto.

Gomez is not a good hitter. There, I said it. His approach at the plate is abysmal, although it started to improve after he was moved to ninth in the order. However, I am of the opinion that his defense is enough to make it worth him playing every day. If he regresses at the plate, however, or fails to improve, I am all for kicking him down to AAA and watching him deal with a large number of not-as-good breaking pitches. Overall: 6.75

Denard Span

Plate Approach	Power	Overall Offense	Defensive Range	Arm Strength	Defensive Skill	Overall Defense	Other Considerations
8	5	7	8	5	7	7	6.5*

*The Twins would be crazy to do anything but have Span play every day. When Gomez is on the bench, he should be in center. When Gomez is in Center, Span should be in left, where his range will play better than in right, and he won’t need as much experience playing the Baggie. Span is probably the best outfielder the twins have. However, he is not a fan favorite the same way the Gomez and Cuddyer are, and he doesn’t have contractual or trade reasons to play, so I could see him getting the shaft for other players. Lets hope he doesn’t.

Span probably has the best plate approach on the Twins, excepting Mauer, although even Mauer doesn’t have much on top of him. His power is nothing to brag about, but he is the best defender after Gomez (although, to be fair, most of Gomez’ skill comes from his ridiculous speed; what would be an impossible play for anyone else would be easy for Gomez, since he usually has about twenty minutes under the ball before he has to catch it). Overall: 7

So there we have it. So, now that we know what each of the players is good at, how should they be managed this year? I think a lot depends on whether the Twins pick up Crede. If they pick up Crede, they are less likely to feel the need to have an extra right-handed power bat in the line-up, so it becomes more likely that both Gomez and Span will be in the field together with either Cuddyer or Young. However, if the Twins stick with the platoon on third, expect the Twins to ignore the defensive value of the Span-Gomez punch in the outfield fairly often, so they can get Young and Cuddyer in the lineup together.

Against right-handed pitchers that aren’t known for relying on breaking pitches, the outfield will likely look like this, from left to right: Span – Gomez – Young/Cuddyer DH – Kubel.

Against right-handed pitchers known for their breaking stuff: Young – Span – Cuddyer DH – Kubel.

Against lefties not known for breaking pitches: Span – Gomez – Young DH – Kubel or Cuddyer.

Against lefties known for their breaking pitches: Span – Gomez – Cuddyer DH – Kubel or Young.

When Baker/Slowey/Perkins are pitching, I would lean toward an outfield that has Span and Gomez in it (due to their fly ball ratios). Liriano is the same, but less so.

I have even heard some commenters on other sites jokingly suggest that the Twins could play Span and Gomez in the outfield and move Cuddyer into the infield for necessary situations, but this is just fun to think about in the abstract. There is NO way that will happen.

Will the Twins actually run this way? No. Gardenhire places far too much value on “gut” and “hustle” (except when it comes to Young, who apparently doesn’t count on those attributes). Do I think this is the best way to approach it? Probably. Will most people disagree? Probably.

Leave your thoughts below, if you please. I am curious what people think.

Eric.

P.S. My wife and I adopted a Beagle/Terrier mix last week. Her name is Kasey, and she is pretty much awesome. Here’s a picture:

Our new pup, Kasey.

Playing with the Outfield; Problems Caused by Cuddyer (NOMY)

(Note: This post is mostly an expansion on posts I left here and here today. I wanted to take the space to thresh out the ideas more fully, so here you go.)

(NOTE: I will be going on my first real vacation in several years on Saturday, and thus might not have another post up for a week or so. I might have occasional internet access in Hawaii(!), and if I do, I will try to post a couple short updates. If not, have a great next week!)

The Twins have a dilemma. Right now there is a good chance that Michael Cuddyer will come back from his finger injury next week. So far, after three games, he is hitting .300 (3 for 10) with two doubles on his rehab assignment in Rochester and says that his finger is responding well to actually being used (last week he said that his lingering finger pain seemed to be stemming from unuse of the finger. While it is great that his finger is doing better, it could cause a lot of problems for the club if he comes back soon.

Cuddyer is a great guy and about the closest thing the Twins have to a leader in the clubhouse (after Red Dog, but taking batting practice naked is not necessarily leaderly). He also had a great year in 2006 and a passable last year, but last year he first started showing his propensity for injury. This season, he has only played in 62 of 114 games. if he comes back next week Friday for the West Coast road trip, he will have missed only two fewer games than he has played in this year, and there is still a chance that Cuddyer won’t reach 325 at-bats this year (he is currently at 234) and is currently hitting at a rather sad .252 (in contrast, the much-maligned Gomez is hitting .257, and his average is on the upswing after that brutal slump in July). It is impossible to know how he will play at the bigs after having such an injury-filled season. He shouldn’t go back to being the everyday LF, if only to protect his finger from further injuries. I would rather have him play about half-time for the rest of the season and then undertake a full rehab program in the offseason.

So, lets say that Cuddyer comes back and plays. Where does he take playing time from? He has four choices: Denard Span, Carlos Gomez, Jason Kubel, and Delmon Young.

Let’s start with Denard Span, who fighting with Alexi Casilla for the best Twins story of the year. I would have to say that Alexi is a slightly better story, since his success is a total surprise (he was hitting a whole .216 in Rochester before his call-up), but Span is a VERY close second. Since his second call-up, Span has been a major part of nearly every Twins game, and almost always on the positive side. He has been a fixture on the late-night highlight reels (hell, he’s made some of the midday shows too). He (nearly) single-handedly won the last game at Safeco Field on Wednesday, with a three-run triple that provided the first three Twins runs and one of the most amazing plays of the year, when he stole a home-run from some-people-hoped-almost-Twin Adrian Beltre. I wasn’t one of them, but that’s a story for another day. Span continues to impress at the plate everyday, getting very possibly the best at-bats of any Twins player whose last name doesn’t start with M. Any way you slice it, Span does NOT deserve to be sent down. The only downsides I can see with Span is that he is not very good at playing the Baggy and he doesn’t have a very strong arm to the plate. That’s the clearest call of any that will follow right now.

The Twins haven’t had a center-fielder with range like Gomez since, well, it’s been a while. Gomez sometimes has some difficulty with routine plays, but he leads the majors in out-of-position plays right now. I suspect a lot of this comes from having Delmon Young in left and Cuddyer (sometimes) in right. There have been at least a dozen plays this year where I thought, “Crap, that’s extra bases” only to have Gomez swoop in and steal the hit from mid-air. The kid is fast. ’nuff said. He also has a very strong arm, though not a particularly accurate one. Most of his errors on the season (four of seven) have been throws that were up the first base line far enough that they went into the dugout or to the backstop. However, he has seven assists and his errors has declined as he has hit the cut-off man more reliably. The hard question about Gomez is this: is his near-stellar defense enough to keep him an everyday player in the major leagues despite his hitting? To me, the answer is yes. Gomez is currently hitting .257 because of his devastating slump in July (which, coincidentally, started at almost the same time that Span appeared and started presenting a challenge for his job) after hitting .266 on June 27 and .282 on June 1. Everyone knows he has had trouble hitting breaking balls on the outside corner, but since being sent down to the 9-spot, with less pressure, he has hit .371 (13-for-35 with an OBP of .451, small sample size and all), even after a not-so-great series against the Indians (2-for-9, or .222). Gomez, right now, is doing what we all thought he would do at the beginning of the season. His problem is that with one stellar month, he made us all think that he would develop at a rate approaching hyperspeed (Star Wars fans out there?). I don’t think Gomez has anything to worry about.

What about Jason Kubel? He is rocking it right now, against everyone but, well, lefties. He is second on the team in HRs, with 16 (only two behind Morneau). He is finally giving Morneau a little protection, when Gardy will actually bat him in the 5th spot. Right now, he is losing a few at-bats to the right-handed DH du jour, but that is fine with me. He has been hitting very well recently, and almost handed the Twins a game the other day with two home runs, one against a lefty. However, he is sllllooooowwwwww in the outfield. He is defnitely a DH, and he has really come into his own this year. If we had anyone to replace him, I would say he would be good trade bait for next year, but for now, I will say that the FREE JASON KUBEL movement has a been a rather stunning success.

This brings us to Delmon. This is only his second year in the majors, so I have tried to cut him some slack. I did rip on one play the other day, but that was because it was Soooooo bad. His bat is doing fairly well right now, but his power is still totally absent. He has four home runs on the year, three of them at the Metrodome. Not exactly what we expected when we traded our top pitching prospect for him. For a while, he flirted with .300, but has since fallen back off to .290 or so. Above average, but not exactly the numbers we expected. His defense, on the other hand, has been exactly what I expected, back when I hadn’t heard of Delmon Young and thought we had traded for Dmitri (I was writing a thesis at the time, OK? So sue me.). Young hasn’t gotten a good jump on a ball all year and his routes to the balls that he does get to are horrendous. His range is tiny; his ass would be grass if Gomez/Span weren’t in CF to save balls in the gap. He manages to underhustle balls on a regular basis; he has been a half-step too short on balls over his head because of lackadaisical play at least six time in the last two weeks. His feet-first dives for the ball drive me insane right now. He has a good arm; I’ll give him that. His eight assists on the year lead the team, though I can’t remember when his last one came. It has been a while. He is absolutely killing the Twins in the field. I hate to say it, but I miss RonDL and Ford in LF, and that’s saying something. At the same time, I understand the dynamics of the game, and that the fans would be rather unhappy if the prize of the Garza trade was sent to the minors; it just won’t happen. However, I think a good benching would do him well.

So, with Cuddy re-appearing, what should the Twins do? The first is obvious: DFA either Ruiz or Lamb. Ruiz is a great guy and I was happy to see him get a couple hits, but I don’t think he has a spot when Cuddy gets back. He is a AAAA player in every sense of the expression. Mike Lamb is another good guy, and I have been waiting to throw out this article that shows his softer side for weeks now. I think he could help a team down the stretch that needs a lefty bat off the bench if the Twins do let him go. But for now, Ruiz is the most likely to go, and I could see a team poaching him off waivers and the Twins getting some unlikely prospect back (Ruiz has great numbers in the minors, and I could see a team grabbing him for a right-handed PH).

So, here is what I think the outfield and DH spots should look like when Cuddy gets back:

• At home against a RH pitcher: RF: Cuddyer; CF: Gomez; LF: Span; DH: Kubel (Span has enough trouble with the baggy that Cuddy should play in right).
• At home against a LH pitcher: RF: Cuddyer/Span; CF: Gomez; LF: Young; DH: Kubel/Cuddyer
• On the road against a RH pitcher: RF: Span/Cuddyer; CF: Gomez; LF: Span/Young; DH: Kubel
• On the road against a LH pitcher: RF: Span; CF: Gomez; LF: Young; DH: Cuddyer

I don’t really think it will shake out that easily, but I can dream, right?

New on my List (NOMY):

The BBTN announcers that are calling Manny “THe Great One” merely because he shares the same uniform number with Wayne Gretzky, who, if you were paying attention, played HOCKEY, which shares as many similarities with baseball as it does with Equestrian. Seriously. Just. Stop. It.

Kevin Slowey is a Gunslinger, and this Game was a Western Movie.

I almost hate myself for stealing that line from the YES announcers, but it is better than I could have come up with myself. Here it is, in context from the game:

“You know, Slowey’s a gunslinger. He serves it up and dares you to hit it. He’s fearless.”

I was all ready to write a piece about how Slowey had stepped into the lion’s den and had thrown a brilliant game and had advanced to tie Blackburn and Perkins for second on the team in wins. But the game didn’t quite pan out that way.

I, along with (I’m sure) many others, noticed rather early on that Slowey didn’t have all his stuff firing on all cylinders. His fastballs seemed high and outside to the lefties, and the umpire had an absurdly small strike zone. Still, he pitched a superb game until the sixth inning, when he gave up a two-run homer to Bobby Abreu. Then Gardy pulled him after A-Rod singled on a ground ball Punto couldn’t pick up. The Bullpen stepped in and didn’t do so hot.

Kevin Slowey is a gunslinger in the sense of the Wild West. Gunslingers were fearless. They’d ride into town and expect to get in a shoot-out. Supreme confidence. Think John Wayne in some of the old movies. Feeling like crap? The gunslinger still puts himself out there. Gun not loaded properly? Gunslinger still offers up.

Tonight, Slowey stepped up after the ridiculous fiasco of last night. He had the mound presence that Baker only has in his wildest dreams. No Emotion, even when he walked his second batter (which is super low). When he was down in the count, he threw it right in there, challenging the hitters.

The defense, to continue the metaphor, was the buxom dame that does alright when push comes to shove, yet still manages to hit the gunslinger in the head with a bottle of beer/wine at a critical moment. Such were the errors by Brian Buscher and Nick Punto (although Buscher’s wasn’t all that important in the end), as well as that slow grounder he couldn’t quiiiite catch up to. For all his range, he should have easily had that ball.

The offense, well, they’re the stagecoach that never shows up until it is too late, if ever. I do have to send Gomez props for his double and Span for his, well, being awesome.

Tonight, the bullpen was the slightly special sidekick that manages to get the gunslinger in trouble time after time. It has been for the last two games now. The sidekick never actually gets the gunslinger killed, but the sidekick continually digs the hole deeper. I’m not sure if Reyes has kept an inherited runner from scoring all year. Bass was just… Bass. He gave up a run and was mediocre. The surprise, to me, was Jesse Crain, who has been, overall, quite solid. He had just been picked by Sportscenter as a Top Performer over the all-star break, then he goes and does… this. Gross.

The difference between the Western Movie and today was in the ending. Kevin Slowey, as the gunslinger, didn’t get to walk off into the sunset after fighting his way out of the jam. He and the defense didn’t live happily ever after (I don’t know if any of the starting pitchers (except for maybe Livan) is even friends with the defense after the way this season has gone). The sidekick was essentially slaughtered… the gunslinger couldn’t step in and save them. And where was the offense? It certainly didn’t show up at the nick of time, as in the movies, to save the gunslinger with an unlimited supply of bullets and gunpowder. It didn’t bring a second gunslinger… or a friggin’ cannon to get the job done. It is missing.

Few pitchers have had enough spine to try to gut it out the way Slowey has. His composure has never wavered all season. He has just been attending Livan Hernandez’s traveling circus of marksmanship and shipping his backup on the Scott Baker stagecoach line. Just like Scott Baker has pitched better than his lines show, so has Slowey.

The Bullpen, man. Look for a post on that tomorrow. I am far too frustrated to talk about that one tonight.

.

..

…

….

…..

And the Offense just showed up.

P.S. Kubel running out the double play? Who woulda thunk it?

Changing the Lineup

Alright. I have to eat some serious crow here.

On various blogs for the last few months, I have argued continuously to keep the lineup as it is. Leave Gomez in the lead-off role, just leave it be.

Too bad I was wrong.

So, I’ll go through the lineup and figure out what I figure is best.

Lead-off

Gomez has shown that, while he is a LOT of fun to watch at the top of the lineup (when he does the whole hitting the ball thing, which he hasn’t in 14 at-bats), he really hasn’t earned the right to be there anymore. Yesterday, Howard Sinker wrote a post detailing the reasons Span is better to bat lead-off instead of Gomez. I will simply concur and move beyond this post. I will make the caveat that if Gomez can get his poop in a group and turn it around, I want him leading off again. So, Span gets the nod at lead-off.

2nd

I am actually fairly torn on this spot. I feel like Joe Mauer is a natural for the 2 spot. He gets on base a lot, he can spray all over the diamond, and he can leg out an infield single almost as good as other people. But Joe didn’t feel comfortable batting second when it was tried at the beginning of the season, and he and Justin have this weird sort of synergy that is almost baffling.

So scratch Mauer, though i WANT to see him there. Casilla is clearly the next best option. he is hitting at a very good rate, can drop down a sacrifice bunt better than anyone on the team but Mauer (and maybe Punto). He also has a very discerning eye at the plate and can really rock that spot.

3-spot

Mauer. No real discussion here.

Cleanup

If it weren’t for the weird M and M synergy, I would like to see a righty batting here, especially with Young doing better as of late. However, I’ll leave Morneau there for the time being.

5-spot

This one really depends on the pitcher. If it is a right-handed starter, I would like to see Kubel batting here. Otherwise, the hot right-handed bat – Delmon Young right now.

6- spot

Designated hitter if Kubes isn’t batting earlier. If he is, then the next best hitting righty should bat here.

Seventh

Third Base, whether that is Harris or Buscher.

Eighth

Right now, I want to see Gomez batting eighth. He doesn’t have a great OBP, but when he does get on base, he can really fly and is fun to watch. Therefore, I want someone behind him (before leadoff) to hit him in/advance him a base. Which brings me to:

Ninth

Punto/Harris (when at shortstop, if he ever is again).

Final Lineup looks like this:

Span

Casilla

Mauer/Redmond

Morneau

Kubel against Right-handed pitchers, Young against Lefties

Monroe/Kubel or Young

Buscher/Harris

Gomez

Punto/Harris

Thoughts?