Important Game #6: Slowey Out for the Year

(Note: I’ll be posting several articles that I had partially written since Friday but didn’t have time to finish. Please check back often for the rest! As, always, I’ll be tweeting @calltothepen. Follow me there or subscribe to my posts using the button on the sidebar!)

Here’s a quick refresher about the series:

Basically, the premise of the series is that certain games have an effect that is far greater than their mere impact on the win-loss column. These games are mentally and physically definitive of a season, and before the new season begins, by looking back and remembering and feeling the emotions of last season one more time, we can understand what happened, what went wrong, and most importantly, what went right. So, climb aboard the side-burn express, and keep your hands, arms, feet, heads, and all other extremities inside the vehicles at all times as we embark on one final excursion through the highs and lows of last season.

Courtesy MLB.com

July 3rd: Twins lose in extras 11-9, then suffer a far worse loss the next day.

This is the only one of the games in on the list that are important, not only for what happened in the game itself, but from news that blossomed based on a seed planted during the game. This was, as the title implies the final game of 2009 that was pitched by our erstwhile and potential ace, Kevin Slowey. But more about that in a little while. First, a discussion of the Important game itself.

The 2009 Twins were perhaps the most hot-and-cold team I can remember following. They would seemingly go for weeks at a time without a quality start from their pitchers (quality = good, not the meaningless counting stat), then turn it on and win a bunch in a row. Overall, the offense was somehow acceptable, despite the fact that their obscenely high batting average w/ runners in scoring position in 2008 came back down to earth, and they did it with barely a warm body in the second position in the batting order. The batting average, OBP, and SLG% was the worst of all the second hitters in the majors. However, as good as the offense was on the season, the pitching staff was shaky from the start, in large part stemming from some extremely poor personnel management.

For whatever odd reason, the Twins broke camp with Luis Ayala. Ayala is a topic for another day and possibly his own post, but suffice to say I can’t fathom why the Twins signed a sinkerballer whose fastballs have never really sunk to be middle-relief/low-leverage setup guy when he thought he was signing a contract for high-lev setup or closing if Joe Nathan went down. So, Ayala wasted a roster spot for three months. The Twins also brought Phil Humber north, perhaps hoping beyond hope that he would be able to contribute better at the MLB level than he had in Rochester. He didn’t, and was released April 17 to make space for Juan Morillo, who spent all of a week or so in the majors before being sent to the minors and eventually going to Japan. R.A. Dickey also came to Minny, and proved to be valuable, if uber-hittable. He also was released eventually. The trend continued all year: rather than trading or doing anything to get a serviceable relief pitcher (up until the Jon Rauch trade and the Ron Mahay signing), the Twins acted incredibly stupid. The Twins lost Craig Breslow, perhaps the greatest unheralded hero of the 2008 squad, to waivers because they were impatient with his good-but-not-as-steller-as-last-year numbers, only to bring up Sean Henn. Face it. Stupid moves abounded. More on this in another post later this week.

But the biggest problem was the starters, three of the five of which regressed significantly. Kevin Slowey was on pace to win 20 games before he was lost for the season (see below), but his peripherals were not-so-sparkling. Scott “Timmy” Baker started the season hurt, then lost six straight. Francisco Liriano lost the ability to handle the strike zone. Glen Perkins started brilliant, then came down with a phantom-like, mysterious shoulder injury that no one but him could locate. Only Nick Blackburn was rock-steady, with a nearly identical season to 2008. This forced the Twins to rely on a hodge-podge of Dickey, Armando Gabino, Anthony Swarzak, Brian Duensing, and Jeff Manship to start fourth-and-fifth games. Duensing even had the honor of being murdered by the Yankees in the first game of the playoffs. Anyway, the whole idea I’m trying to put out here is how bad a shape the starting staff was last year.

Inge hit by a pitch to the jersey. Deja Vu much? Image Courtesy MLB.com

The game on July 3rd started out disastrously. Kevin Slowey gave up six runs in the first three innings, before he was removed due to soreness in his wrist. Brian Duensing came in and made a valiant effort to hold the line, going 3.2 innings, giving up just one run. The Twins offense did their best to back up the Twins starter, and managed to tie the game at 7 based on a run each in the third and fourth innings before exploding for five in the sixth. The Twins brought in Bobby Keppel to keep it tied when Duensing indicated that his arm was about to fall off, and, somewhat surprisingly, he continued his scoreless streak with 1 1/3 inning. He was followed by perfect outings from Joe Nathan, Matt Guerrier, and Jose Mijares, all of whom pitched scoreless innings (or two). The Tigers and Twins matched runs in the 14th. At this point, the game felt just slightly epic. I wondered if the game would ever be over.

Brendan Harris hits a triple, his only hit. Image Courtesy MLB.com

Offensively, the heroes included Denard Span, who was 5 for 8 with a triple, a run scored, and an RBI, Joe Mauer, who was 2 for 6 with a walk and an RBI, Delmon Young, who was 3 for 6 with his third home run of the season, Michael Cuddyer, who was 3 for 8 w/ 2 RBI, and Justin Morneau went 3 for 7 with a walk and an RBI. Somewhat unsurprisingly, Carlos Gomez, Matt Tolbert, Brian Buscher, and Nick Punto went a combined 0 for 9, with 2 walks (both by Punto).

Pitching a game that lasts 16 innings can be tough, but it becomes excruciating when the starter leaves after 3 innings. Dickey was the last available pitcher of the night, and I think he was literally in the game until his arm fell off or Michael Cuddyer was able to convince Gardy that his sinker was good enough to get outs. Unfortunately, the Twins offense wasn’t able to win the game in any of the preceding 6 extra innings, and the Tigers mauled Dickey for three runs in the top of the 16th. The Twins’ comeback fell short, and they fell back to 2.5 games behind the Tigers in the Central.

As hard as the loss was to bear, the next day the Twins got even worse news: that Kevin Slowey would be heading to the disabled list. Though Slowey had had some rough times, when he was on, he had been arguably the best pitcher on the Twins the past two seasons. He was originally put on the DL for a “strained wrist”; the hope was that he’d be back in a few weeks. Unfortunately, the wrist never felt better, and it was eventually discovered that he had a broken wrist, and probably had since being struck by a line drive off the bat of Juan Uribe in his final start of 2008. He had surgery and ended with two pins in his wrist, which even at the beginning of this season were still causing him grief. For it’s ability to impact the Twins even this year, July 3rd joins the countdown as Important Game #6.

State of the ‘Pen, ver. 2.1

So, we have arrived at the second half of the season, at least as separated by the All-Star Break. The Twins, as a team, are playing pretty well. If not for injuries/illnesses, there is a very good probability that the Twins could be leading the division right now. Lets take quick stock of what this team has:

• An amazing defensive catcher who also leads the majors in batting average and the American league in SLG%, OBP%, and therefore, OPS. He also leads the league in VORP. All-in-all, worth offering a big contract to, I think.
• For the first time in years, a relatively stable defensively-proficient third base, which also has provided a great deal of power and home runs.
• As for first base, do I need to say anything?
• On most days, a very good defensive outfield.
• On most days, a proficient starting rotation.
• On some days, a proficient bullpen.
• A great closer.
• A DH that seems to finally be hitting his stride (well, he started to last year, but he has gotten better this year).
• The season’s four worst pitchers, measured by ERA, are no longer with the Twins.

Here’s what we are lacking:

• A reliable bridge to said closer.
• Proven long relief.
• Consistency in the bullpen.
• A 1-2 punch in the rotation… or we could have Liriano actually step it up a bit.
• A middle infield that, you know, hits the ball with any reliability.
• A hitter for the 2-spot.
• A reliever that can reliably get lefties out in the middle innings (other than Mijares).

So with that in mind, I’ll look at the bullpen in this post, and some of the other missing pieces in other posts. I’ll start with a look at the staff post-all-star break, in order of efficiency/how good they have been for the first half.

• Joe Nathan – Has been just as good as advertised, and worth his extension. His inning in the All-Star game was uncharacteristically shaky, but he has been a force of nature most of the year, and I am pleased to say that my reluctance to grant my approval to Nathan has been proven unreasonable. Joe is now, in my opinion, the best closer in baseball by quite a bit, and we should appreciate him even more than we do, if possible.
• Jose Mijares – While part of me wants to continue to insist that he is playing over his head, he has been so consistent that even a cynical guy like myself has to acknowledge that he must be doing something right. Mijares’ K-to-BB ratio is nothing special, at 25-to-14, but his ERA is still below 2, earning him the number 2 spot on this list. However, Mijares seems like he might be morphing into an early-Nathan-style reliever, where he gets the job done, but there are a lot of baserunners and a lot of fingernails chewed to the nub.
• Matt Guerrier – When Matty basically melted his arm last year, we (including me) were worried about his future with the team. He has since proven that we had little worry about. He has gone back to his efficient self, putting up a sub-2.5 ERA while posting the second best WHIP on the team, after Mr. Nathan. We’ll see if overuse remains a problem later in the year, but so far, he has been used less, and he has shown that the trust placed in him has not been misplaced.
• R.A. Dickey – Dickey has hit a rough spot this month, after hanging out at a 2.36 ERA at the beginning of the month, he gave up runs in three of his last four outings, though they weren’t all his fault. Even so, he still sits at an impressive 3.25 ERA going into tonights action against his old Texas team. The Home/Road splits have been heinous on Dickey, but not in the way you would expect. On the road, he holds a 1.75 ERA and a 1.2 WHIP, while at home he has a 4.55 ERA and a 1.5 WHIP. This gives me some hope for next year, as he should stick with the team. They thought that Dickey would be great in the controlled conditions of the Dome, but that just hasn’t been borne out. However, he has been FAR better than expected, and that should be recognized even through his current struggles.
• Bobby Keppel – WTF?! Seriously, I wrote a few weeks ago that he would be a rent-a-player until he either was demoted and opted out of his contract, or would be traded. While trading him is still not out of the question, I have to say, he has been darn impressive. In 12.1 innings, he has allowed only one ER, and has been much better than advertised (See, front office, this is what an effective sinkerball looks like!). He’ll probably come back to earth, and when he does, the Twins have the luxury of choosing whether they want to hold on to him or not. I’m guessing they will, unless he becomes horrendous a la Sean Henn.
• Brian Duensing – Why is he with the team? If he is being showed off as trade bait, it isn’t working too well. If they are hoping to get good innings from him, it hasn’t been working either. I assume the only reason he is up is for another lefty option, but honestly, i don’t know why. He’s suitable for mop-up work and not much else.
• Kevin Mulvey – The Twins just purchased his contract. Again, I don’t know why. Trade bait? Who knows.

So, we have the good, the bad, the ugly, and the unknown. I am not optimistic about the Twins’ ability to trade for bullpen help, but I would assume that we will be seeing a good short reliever soon, like Rob Delaney or Anthony Slama (both of whom should get September call-ups, if not sooner). I wouldn’t focus on a set-up guy per se, though. Mijares and Guerrier are doing a decent job of that at this point. What the Twins really need is consistency in middle relief, and if Keppel and Mulvey (and maybe even Duensing) can provide that, the Bullpen is in a strong position for the beginning of the second half of the season.

Lets talk about love / the bullpen

The Twins’ bullpen has been long lamented by me and many others that write on the interwebs. Most of them are better at statistics than me, which is why I generally shy away from using advanced statistics to make predictions or to analyze the past performance of a pitcher. If you want someone to use stats, try here or here or here.

My place in the storied (yeah, right) history of the Twins blogosphere is to point out what should be obvious, and thus waste everyone’s time. Hence today’s observation:

The bullpen kinda, sorta stinks.

Yeah, yeah. I know, don’t let all your jaws hit the floor in unison. This is the kind of observation that I get (not) paid for. No compliments, it’s what I do.

However, it’s true. The Twins have now lost 12 games with their bullpen, which is fifth worst in the league (there are three teams tied at 13).Their ERA is 4.19, which isn’t bad, except when you think about how many extra runs the starters have absorbed because of the bullpen’s ability to strand. They have been, in short, really bad.

However, the bullpen has only had to throw 197.1 innings, which is fourth-fewest, and in my opinion, fourth best, in the AL. (just as an fyi, I use the AL as a measuring stick because NL rules lead to a very different role for the bullpen from time to time). The starters have done a good job of eating innings, which is pretty impressive, given the poor records of Scott Baker, and, especially, Francisco Liriano. As  a matter of fact, the Twins starters have thrown the most innings in the AL (and are only 1/3 inning behind St. Louis for the overall lead) at 429.1 innings.

The bullpen’s ERA is better than the starters, mostly thanks to disastrous outings by Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins, and Scott Baker in April (4.19 to 4.55). However, the bullpen ERA is helped by incredibly low numbers put up by Joe Nathan, Jose Mijares, R.A. Dickey (as a reliever), and Matt Guerrier (at 1.69, 2.57, 2.14, and 2.84, respectively). The numbers then jump up by more than a full run to 4.18 (Luis Ayala, may he rest in peace), 6.00 (Brian Duensing, in AAA), 6.28 (Craig Breslow, may he enjoy the yellow and green in Oakland), 7.36 (Sean Henn, who for some reason is still with the team), 8.15 (Jesse Crain, in AAA), 12.46 (Phil Humber, may he rest in peace), and 22.50 (Juan Morillo, in AAA). (Note: I know ERA is bad as a measure, but I don’t do advanced stats, so there we go).

Ouch. So, pretty much what we can conclude from this is that the four anchors of the bullpen have been great most (or all) of the season, and especially lately. However, the rest have been wretched. Ironically, yesterday the Twins got rid of the best of the worst when they dfa’d Ayala, for doing basically what the Twins should have expected him to do from the time they signed him, as Aaron Gleeman pointed out this morning. They basically switched him for Bobby Keppel, who should take up the mantle as yet another mediocre righty in the ‘Pen.

Despite the obvious problems with the bullpen, though, there is no reason the bullpen can’t be a reason the Twins will succeed, rather than  something they have to overcome to succeed. The four studs are more than capable of mixing and matching to take the eighth and ninth innings and the seventh if necessary. However, the Twins have no semi-effective mop-up guy, or a guy that could throw multiple innings other than Dickey, who should really be placed in higher-leverage situations.

However, the starters might be in line to need more time off. Nick Blackburn is on track to throw 212 innings, and he, Baker, Kevin Slowey, and Liriano are all on track to throw career highs in total innings (Perkins would be too if he hadn’t been on the DL). The starting staff will tire and will likely start to break down a bit, which means that we need middle relief that actually works. Unfortunately, no one but Dickey has been adequate in that role, and he will likely be placed in higher leverage situations because he has been so good to this point. Henn needs to stay out of situations where there is less than a four run lead or a six-run deficit, but that isn’t going to be an option if middle relief is needed. Keppel hardly inspires confidence, as he seems like a cheaper and probably less effective Ayala.

So, what about Glen Perkins? He has been rather ineffective as a whole as a starter this year, though he has had flashes of brilliance. What if he was sent to the ‘Pen to be the long-reliever? I don’t doubt he would be really good in that role. Lacking that, maybe Swarzak could come back to fill that role; he did quite well in two of four outings as a starter, but maybe he’d do better only seeing each hitter once.

So, note to Bill Smith: we don’t need Huston Street, and we really don’t need LaTroy Hawkins. We need a Brad Penny. Or, barring that, we need fewer mediocre minor league free agents.

Keppel Headed for Minny, who is leaving? UPDATED: It’s Ayala.

According to Matt Weinstein of the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle, Bobby Keppel is headed for the Twins, which means someone will have to go. There are three questions that I think this move raises:

1. Why Bobby Keppel? Why not Rob Delaney or some other hotshot?

The answer to this one is pretty simple. Bobby Keppel was signed last winter as a minor league free agent, after he was released from the Albequerque Isotopes. As such, his contract includes an opt-out clause similar to the one Mike Gosling exercised a few weeks ago. Keppel has been very good this season, posting a 2.43 ERA in 55.2 innings, 21 as a starter. Interestingly, Keppel was slated to start tonight in Rochester, so when he was called up after yesterday night’s Red Wings game, it left Rochester in a bit of a bind. The fact of the matter is that if Keppel didn’t get called up soon, he likely would have exercised his opt-out and went to a team that has immediate need at the major-league level (God knows there’s a bunch of them). It is a bit surprising, since he is not on the 40-man roster. I imagine giving Keppel his shot at the bigs will keep him with the club for the time being, and if, in a month or less, he has not produced, it won’t hurt too badly to release him. Delaney or Armando Gabino (as suggested by LEN3)were less likely because they don’t have the contractual options that Keppel does.

2. Do we lose a reliever or a position player?

Right now the Twins have six arms in the bullpen: Joe Nathan, Sean Henn, Luis Ayala, R.A. Dickey, Jose Mijares, and Matt Guerrier. Since we are in the middle of interleague, I am not surprised to see a smaller bullpen in order to have the depth on the bench for double switches and the like. By the numbers, it wouldn’t be a bad guess that we might see a position player headed for Rochester. Brian Buscher or Matt Tolbert come to mind. Both have options left, and neither has been effective at the major-league level this season (although Buscher did have one of the two hits the other night). However, two members of the bullpen have been really, really bad. Both Sean Henn and Luis Ayala have definitely shown that they don’t deserve their spot in the ‘Pen. However, neither has options, as Ayala was a major league free agent and Henn was a minor-league free agent, so either would have to be dfa’d (although I’m not sure on this point, maybe Henn just has to be offered to all other clubs on irrevocable offers, and then can be reassigned to Rochester, hopefully someone out there can tell me). Both Henn and Ayala have shown flashes of brilliance, but neither of them have shown enough to be considered worthy to stay over the added flexibility of the extra bench player for this interleague road trip.

3. Who goes, since we’ve established that it will likely be a bullpen guy?

Keppel is not currently on the 40-man roster, which is currently full, so someone will have to be removed to make space for him. So, the qualifications for the character that will be dfa’d are likely the following: Bullpen guy, ineffective, no options. That description fits both Henn and Ayala. However, Ayala signed a $1.25 mil deal in the off-season, which gives him the cost advantage (although he has performance-based enhancements that will kick in soon). Henn, on the other hand, is cheap, making a prorated share of $.5 million for his time in the majors. For that reason, I expect Henn to go; the Twins have shown a great deal of reluctance to let go of players they owe coin to.

So, in the end, I see a 65% chance of Henn going away, a 20% chance of Ayala going, a 10% chance of Buscher, Tolbert, or (doubtfully) Pridie being demoted, and a 5% chance of being totally surprised.

(EDIT: Forget that last paragraph, as I forgot that Neshek was on the 60-day DL, freeing up a spot on the 40-man roster. It’s a crapshoot as to what happens next, though I still see the most likely thing as Henn going buh-bye)

UPDATE: AYALA was indeed dfa’d. We’ll see if he accepts his assignment, but I am extremely skeptical that he will.