A favor to ask… Submit Twins Links!

Hey all,

I am finally getting around to the site upgrades I had been promising for months (note the new header image, for starters), and one thing that I need to spend some time on is my blogroll. I need help finding worth-while Twins blogs and sites, because while I spend a lot of time each day surfing blogs, I can’t check them all.

Thanks!

Eric

Lets talk about love / the bullpen

The Twins’ bullpen has been long lamented by me and many others that write on the interwebs. Most of them are better at statistics than me, which is why I generally shy away from using advanced statistics to make predictions or to analyze the past performance of a pitcher. If you want someone to use stats, try here or here or here.

My place in the storied (yeah, right) history of the Twins blogosphere is to point out what should be obvious, and thus waste everyone’s time. Hence today’s observation:

The bullpen kinda, sorta stinks.

Yeah, yeah. I know, don’t let all your jaws hit the floor in unison. This is the kind of observation that I get (not) paid for. No compliments, it’s what I do.

However, it’s true. The Twins have now lost 12 games with their bullpen, which is fifth worst in the league (there are three teams tied at 13).Their ERA is 4.19, which isn’t bad, except when you think about how many extra runs the starters have absorbed because of the bullpen’s ability to strand. They have been, in short, really bad.

However, the bullpen has only had to throw 197.1 innings, which is fourth-fewest, and in my opinion, fourth best, in the AL. (just as an fyi, I use the AL as a measuring stick because NL rules lead to a very different role for the bullpen from time to time). The starters have done a good job of eating innings, which is pretty impressive, given the poor records of Scott Baker, and, especially, Francisco Liriano. As  a matter of fact, the Twins starters have thrown the most innings in the AL (and are only 1/3 inning behind St. Louis for the overall lead) at 429.1 innings.

The bullpen’s ERA is better than the starters, mostly thanks to disastrous outings by Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins, and Scott Baker in April (4.19 to 4.55). However, the bullpen ERA is helped by incredibly low numbers put up by Joe Nathan, Jose Mijares, R.A. Dickey (as a reliever), and Matt Guerrier (at 1.69, 2.57, 2.14, and 2.84, respectively). The numbers then jump up by more than a full run to 4.18 (Luis Ayala, may he rest in peace), 6.00 (Brian Duensing, in AAA), 6.28 (Craig Breslow, may he enjoy the yellow and green in Oakland), 7.36 (Sean Henn, who for some reason is still with the team), 8.15 (Jesse Crain, in AAA), 12.46 (Phil Humber, may he rest in peace), and 22.50 (Juan Morillo, in AAA). (Note: I know ERA is bad as a measure, but I don’t do advanced stats, so there we go).

Ouch. So, pretty much what we can conclude from this is that the four anchors of the bullpen have been great most (or all) of the season, and especially lately. However, the rest have been wretched. Ironically, yesterday the Twins got rid of the best of the worst when they dfa’d Ayala, for doing basically what the Twins should have expected him to do from the time they signed him, as Aaron Gleeman pointed out this morning. They basically switched him for Bobby Keppel, who should take up the mantle as yet another mediocre righty in the ‘Pen.

Despite the obvious problems with the bullpen, though, there is no reason the bullpen can’t be a reason the Twins will succeed, rather than  something they have to overcome to succeed. The four studs are more than capable of mixing and matching to take the eighth and ninth innings and the seventh if necessary. However, the Twins have no semi-effective mop-up guy, or a guy that could throw multiple innings other than Dickey, who should really be placed in higher-leverage situations.

However, the starters might be in line to need more time off. Nick Blackburn is on track to throw 212 innings, and he, Baker, Kevin Slowey, and Liriano are all on track to throw career highs in total innings (Perkins would be too if he hadn’t been on the DL). The starting staff will tire and will likely start to break down a bit, which means that we need middle relief that actually works. Unfortunately, no one but Dickey has been adequate in that role, and he will likely be placed in higher leverage situations because he has been so good to this point. Henn needs to stay out of situations where there is less than a four run lead or a six-run deficit, but that isn’t going to be an option if middle relief is needed. Keppel hardly inspires confidence, as he seems like a cheaper and probably less effective Ayala.

So, what about Glen Perkins? He has been rather ineffective as a whole as a starter this year, though he has had flashes of brilliance. What if he was sent to the ‘Pen to be the long-reliever? I don’t doubt he would be really good in that role. Lacking that, maybe Swarzak could come back to fill that role; he did quite well in two of four outings as a starter, but maybe he’d do better only seeing each hitter once.

So, note to Bill Smith: we don’t need Huston Street, and we really don’t need LaTroy Hawkins. We need a Brad Penny. Or, barring that, we need fewer mediocre minor league free agents.

Keppel Headed for Minny, who is leaving? UPDATED: It’s Ayala.

According to Matt Weinstein of the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle, Bobby Keppel is headed for the Twins, which means someone will have to go. There are three questions that I think this move raises:

1. Why Bobby Keppel? Why not Rob Delaney or some other hotshot?

The answer to this one is pretty simple. Bobby Keppel was signed last winter as a minor league free agent, after he was released from the Albequerque Isotopes. As such, his contract includes an opt-out clause similar to the one Mike Gosling exercised a few weeks ago. Keppel has been very good this season, posting a 2.43 ERA in 55.2 innings, 21 as a starter. Interestingly, Keppel was slated to start tonight in Rochester, so when he was called up after yesterday night’s Red Wings game, it left Rochester in a bit of a bind. The fact of the matter is that if Keppel didn’t get called up soon, he likely would have exercised his opt-out and went to a team that has immediate need at the major-league level (God knows there’s a bunch of them). It is a bit surprising, since he is not on the 40-man roster. I imagine giving Keppel his shot at the bigs will keep him with the club for the time being, and if, in a month or less, he has not produced, it won’t hurt too badly to release him. Delaney or Armando Gabino (as suggested by LEN3)were less likely because they don’t have the contractual options that Keppel does.

2. Do we lose a reliever or a position player?

Right now the Twins have six arms in the bullpen: Joe Nathan, Sean Henn, Luis Ayala, R.A. Dickey, Jose Mijares, and Matt Guerrier. Since we are in the middle of interleague, I am not surprised to see a smaller bullpen in order to have the depth on the bench for double switches and the like. By the numbers, it wouldn’t be a bad guess that we might see a position player headed for Rochester. Brian Buscher or Matt Tolbert come to mind. Both have options left, and neither has been effective at the major-league level this season (although Buscher did have one of the two hits the other night). However, two members of the bullpen have been really, really bad. Both Sean Henn and Luis Ayala have definitely shown that they don’t deserve their spot in the ‘Pen. However, neither has options, as Ayala was a major league free agent and Henn was a minor-league free agent, so either would have to be dfa’d (although I’m not sure on this point, maybe Henn just has to be offered to all other clubs on irrevocable offers, and then can be reassigned to Rochester, hopefully someone out there can tell me). Both Henn and Ayala have shown flashes of brilliance, but neither of them have shown enough to be considered worthy to stay over the added flexibility of the extra bench player for this interleague road trip.

3. Who goes, since we’ve established that it will likely be a bullpen guy?

Keppel is not currently on the 40-man roster, which is currently full, so someone will have to be removed to make space for him. So, the qualifications for the character that will be dfa’d are likely the following: Bullpen guy, ineffective, no options. That description fits both Henn and Ayala. However, Ayala signed a $1.25 mil deal in the off-season, which gives him the cost advantage (although he has performance-based enhancements that will kick in soon). Henn, on the other hand, is cheap, making a prorated share of $.5 million for his time in the majors. For that reason, I expect Henn to go; the Twins have shown a great deal of reluctance to let go of players they owe coin to.

So, in the end, I see a 65% chance of Henn going away, a 20% chance of Ayala going, a 10% chance of Buscher, Tolbert, or (doubtfully) Pridie being demoted, and a 5% chance of being totally surprised.

(EDIT: Forget that last paragraph, as I forgot that Neshek was on the 60-day DL, freeing up a spot on the 40-man roster. It’s a crapshoot as to what happens next, though I still see the most likely thing as Henn going buh-bye)

UPDATE: AYALA was indeed dfa’d. We’ll see if he accepts his assignment, but I am extremely skeptical that he will.

The One Where I Welcome Myself Back…

Hi!

*waves*

So, when I decided to go to law school, I knew that it would be a ton of work. However, it has been far more than expected over the last few months, especially. It has been quite a while since I last posted, which has resulted in one of the dumber one-word posts I have written staying on the front page for far to long. So, I wanted to give you an example of what just over a week of law school finals at Georgetown looks like. From my actual schedule:

Friday, May 1: Get up 6:30am, at school by 8:30 am, study Corporations until 5pm, go home, eat dinner, study corporations until 2am, go to bed.

Saturday, May 2: Get up 8am, study corporations until 11, shower and get ready and at school at noon, study corporations until 5, go home, eat dinner, study corporations until 4am, go to bed.

Sunday, May 3: Get up 7:30 am, study corporations until 10:30, get ready and go to school by 11:30, study group for corporations until 5, home, eat, study until 5am, go to bed.

Monday, May 4: Get up 6:15am, at school by 8am, study until 9, take eight-hour take-home Corporations exam, go home, eat dinner, watch baseball, go to bed.

Tuesday, May 5: Get up 9am, study Evidence at home until 1:30pm, eat lunch, go to school and study until 5:30, go home, eat dinner, study Evidence while watching baseball until 1am, go to bed.

Wed., May 6: Get up 6:30 am, at school 8am, study Evidence until noon, eat lunch, study group for evidence until 5pm, home, eat dinner, study Evidence until morning (read: all-nighter).

Thursday, May 7: Don’t have to get up, since never went to bed, at school by 7:30 am, drink 5-hour energy drink, study Evidence until 9am, Take evidence test until noon, run out of time in middle of sentence, curse quietly. Eat lunch, go to library to start studying Civil Rights, go home for dinner at 6pm. Get Olive Garden (seafood alfredo for me, Chicken parmagiana for the wife) to go because too tired to cook. Study Civil Rights until midnight, go to bed.

Friday, May 8: Wake up with a cold. Get ready and at law school at 9am. Study Civil Rights until 5pm. go home, eat, study Civil Rights until morning (read: all-nighter #2).

Saturday, May 9: Don’t have to wake up. COntinue to study for Civil Rights until 10am, when drive in to school. Study for civil rights until 2:30. Take civil rights test unti 5. Cry a little bit. Go home and drink tequila. get more Olive Garden take-out, Tour of Italy this time for me, broccoli chicken for my wife. Go to bed at 9pm, after drinking even more alcohol.

Sunday, May 10: Woke up wondering how the Twins had done over the last week. Watched the game. That was a mistake.

Well, that’s where I’ve been for the last few weeks; that’s fairly representative. I hope to have a State of the ‘Pen post up in the next couple days as well as my personal reaction to the Manny situation (read: gloating).

Yickit, wherever you are, congrats on being done! I have do do this (insert word inappropriate for family blog here) again two more times

Should Gomez Spend a Month in AAA?

No.

(That will be all.)

Hmm… Outrage doesn’t seem to cover it…

What do you get your beloved for your 62nd anniversary? Is it Gold? China? I know the 60th is Diamond, but I can’t think of anything better than that… There has to be something we can do! Oh, I have an idea!

Why don’t we have everyone in baseball wear your number for one day?! That seems like a great way to commemorate it!

I’m sorry. I may be burned out and cynical from the paper I am writing for law school (creationism in public education), but I can’t help but think that MLB is turning to platitudes – and public relations stunts – to commemmorate the breaking of the color barrier. Why in the world would else would Bud Selig declare that EVERYONE should wear number 42 this Tax Day (read: April 15). And why shouldn’t they? 62 is a nice round number. Just like 17, and 91, and 34. Geez, what else can we celebrate? I know… let’s all celebrate the day the first hot dog was sold at the first ballpark! We can all dress up like Oscar Meyer Weiners and then engage in a bizarre form of cannibalism as we consume dome dogs by the pound! Those condiment races would certainly come in handy on that day!

Okay, all kidding aside. Stop. Just. Stop. You are cheapening the achievement of Jackie Robinson with all your constant yearly memorials and commemorations and whatnot. I know this is the “big opening” of the Jackie Robinson rotunda at Citi Field, but seriously, have the damn Mets all wear number 42. You are telling me it is necessary to have players on teams that didn’t exist in 1947 wear a number that no one on the team has ever been allowed to wear, just so baseball can sell a few more tickets in the name of nostalgia and profits? I’m sure it means a lot to the all the D-back and Rays fans out there.

Should I be extra cynical and wager that the uniforms will be auctioned off for some charity after the game? The profits will go to some charity, but the publicity is good as gold for MLB.

Seriously.

Give me a break.

Bud Selig, you just made my list.

Sunday, Bloody Sunday (NOMY)

So, Friday I got done with work and a meeting and hurried home, excited for a weekend of baseball, specifically for watching the Twins play on MLB Extra Innings, as it was then the free trial time (now I am back to watching on teh computer). Let me tell you what. The weekend was like a long night’s drinking, and I am having a hangover right now.

The first game was the first nice drink. You are just getting out there, so you get yourself a nice glass of scotch after dinner, and it goes down smooth, and leaves you feeling warm and cozy and happy (I’m a fan of a nice speyside glenlivet). But then it is time to go with friends. You’re still feeling good, and really happy, so you order yourself a shot of top-shelf tequila, you know, the kind that goes down smooth and leaves you feeling light-headed for a second or two afterwards? Yeah, the good stuff. And you look at the TV and see that the Twins are making the Sox do their laundry, and think “It’s gonna be a good night!”

However, it was not to be. Your friends take you to a seedy bar in a bad part of town, and proceed to give you cheap, tasteless American beer. You look at the tv and see that the Twins are losing a heartbreaker in the fourth, 0-1! You think, well, darn, that’s depressing. Your friends notice you look sad, and hook you up with a Jaegerbomb or two. Then you look up at the TV and find out the Twins lost the game 8-0.

By now, you’re pretty blitzed, but your friends aren’t done partying. You’re about ready to go crawl into your blankets and sleep off the Twins’ bad performance, but, hey, you aren’t driving. So your friends take you to an even seedier bar and you do vodka shots until you pass out. Then you wake up in the South Side of Chicago getting crushed by a life-size mannekin of Mark Buerhle next to a newspaper saying that the Twins lost, 1-6.

Depressing, isn’t it? I can’t say I’ve ever had much of that happen to me (and if I had, would I really reveal it on a blog where I use my real name ), but I imagine it is something like what happened over the weekend. Ugh.

New on my list (see the tab at the top of the page for the full listing):

Whoever came up with the bright idea to let FOX block out four or five games on Saturdays, when I clearly won’t be able to see the one that I actually want to see because I am out of the area! UGH!

The Sacrifice Fly – A Diatribe

As long-time readers of this blog can attest to, there is nothing in the rules of baseball that I despise more than Rule 10.08(d), which states:

The official scorer shall:

(d) Score a sacrifice fly when, before two are out, the batter hits a ball in flight handled by an outfielder or an infielder running in the outfield in fair or foul territory that
(1) is caught, and a runner scores after the catch, or
(2) is dropped, and a runner scores, if in the scorer’s judgment the runner could have scored after the catch had the fly been caught.

P.S. Don’t believe Wikipedia as to which rules affect what… they cite Rule 10.09(e), which doesn’t exist. Another argument why Wikipedia should be used sparingly for research.

So, what’s my problem with the sacrifice fly? It scores a run, which I should like (I do like it). It allows scrappy players the ability to get an RBI on a put-out, which I should like (I do). However, it also allows that same scrappy player to avoid any consequences for making that out, which I should also like (which I don’t).

To me, the sacrifice fly is just a cop-out. A player gets to the plate, hits the ball to a defender, and it’s like nothing happened in the box score. It’s still an unintentional out, though.

Essentially, they screwed up in the right way.

Many people think, hell, they moved up the runner or they allowed the run to score by hitting it deep enough. Isn’t that scored run worth something? That’s why they get to discount the at-bat. My argument is that they were already rewarded by getting the rbi. They don’t need a nice little boost to their BA as well.

Sacrifice bunts are a different story to me. A player actually has to approach the plate completely different when they are bunting, whereas with a sacrifice fly, they are simply swinging for the fences. A good at-bat in a sacrifice bunt situation is moving up the runner. The POINT is to get out when you do so, to sacrifice yourself in exchange for that runner’s extra base. A good at-bat in a sac fly situation is hitting a home run or getting an actual hit. A bad at-bat in a sac fly situation is a ground ball to third base, which won’t allow the runner to score.

So how good of an at-bat is one that results in a sacrifice fly being credited to the player? Mediocre. They made an out. It is only marginally better than in this situation: runners on first and third, no outs. Mauer grounds to the second baseman, 4 – 6 – 3 double play, but the run scores. That is certainly not a productive out. But what about this situation: runner on third, less than two outs. Batter grounds out to second baseman, run scores. What is the actual, intrinsic difference between that play and a sacrifice fly? I don’t think there is one.

Yesterday, Justin Morneau hit a sacrifice fly to cap the rally. He currently has a .250 average and seven rbis. He should have the seven rbis, but his average should be .238. Nothing against a guy, but an unintentional out is an unintentional out.

What do you think?

Game Wrap: Game 5

Well, this game was much better for my blood pressure than the last few have been. A few highlights:

• Tonight was the night of the knuckleballers. Tim Wakefield is pitching in LA as I speak, and he appears anything but sharp tonight. On the contrary, I was very pleased with RA Dickey’s start. He wasn’t perfect, and he threw too many pitches to make it to Quality Start territory. However, he kept the White Sox off-balance all night, and his bad pitches came on fastballs, to speak generally.
• Denard Span continues to be the best random fantasy pick I made in the draft a few weeks ago. Since that time, he is second only to Hanley and Longoria (for players) on my team, and that is because he doesn’t hit for nearly as much power. He has shown his overall plate approach last year was not a fluke.
• That magical seven-run inning was much less due to the amazing ability of our hitters than it was to the amazing ineptitude of their pitchers. They certainly didn’t leave the Twins with much work to do. 3 walks, six hits (one a home run), and a Twins victory.
• On the Twins hitting side of things, Morneau and Crede hit solo home runs. Crede’s was ironic, because it wasn’t long after he received a standing ovation from the Chicago fans.
• The most heartening thing about the Twins’ hitters tonight was that they showed a ton of patience and presence at the plate (well, except for Delmon Young).
• I am doing my best not to fall back into the pattern I hit last year, where I would pick on the relievers and the hitters (mostly Young) every day. Neither of those groups deserve it, and we should be supporting them, at least until they truly prove they don’t deserve it.
• Duensing looked good, as did Humber. However, I am thinking Duensing will be the pitcher to go down when Baker gets back.
• Speaking of Baker, he pitched seven solid 1-run innings for Class A Fort Myers tonight. Hopefully he will be back for his next start, though I wouldn’t mind seeing Dickey pitch in the Dome.

Tomorrow Night, Liriano goes up against Bartolo Colon. Ha!

Last week in spring training and Fantasy Draft

So… the Twins haven’t been playing so well the last week or so. In all honesty, I have no idea why. I think it has something to do with the starters generally pitching rather poorly, a select few relievers pitching even more poorly, and a generally stymied offense. For a great breakdown of all the numbers from all the players so far, check out this post over at the Tenth Inning Stretch.

Of course, yesterday was the exception, where the Twins eked out an 11-6 win against a mostly no-name Blue Jays team. Baker was again rough, but didn’t give up a home run.

Position battles:

• I know the front office and Gardy were telling the media that Jose Mijares didn’t have a roster spot locked up in spring training, but he effectively did. All he had to do was to show up for ST and not do… exactly what he has done. With an ERA of Twelve-point-something ugly, Mijares has never not given up runs during a spring training outing. His stuff is up in the zone and doesn’t have any real bite to it. Yesterday, he pitched .2 innings before getting spiked on a weird play at first. He is expected to be fine, but he really needs to pick it up. I would be shocked if he begins the season in Minnesota.
• I will continue to advocate for RA Dickey. Quick, who do these numbers belong to: (1) ERA 5.63, WHIP 1.13, 0 BB, 2 K, or (2) ERA 5.42, WHIP 1.20, 1 BB, 4 K? If you guessed Phil Humber and Brian Bass, in that order, you’d be right. I just have no attraction to Humber whatsoever. If he does break in big with the Twins, I’ll be happy to eat crow, but he seems like a much worse option than Dickey. Humber is just not that great. He’ll make the club, because he is out of options. If it were me, I’d put him on waivers and if he were claimed, I’d be just fine with it. Humber is very close to being a road block on some of the Twins’ good young starters, like Mulvey, Duensing, and Swarzak. It is his time to put up or shut up.
• For the last bullpen slot, I would love to see Dickey, but I doubt the Twins would carry two long relievers, so what they will likely be looking for is a situational LOOGY. The top candidate for this right now is Brian Duensing, but I think that is a terrible idea. It wouldn’t help his development as a mid-quality starter/long reliever to throw a half-dozen pitches three times a week. Not only that, I just don’t think his stuff is good enough against lefties in order for him to be counted on to get the lefty outs. We’ll see what happens on this front.
• I am a total agnostic on the Buscher v. Tolbert v. Harris battle. Someone will win, and the other will be tossed down to AAA for a month until the inevitable thumb injury occurs. Well, hopefully not, but I’m trying to be a realist. If I had to choose, I’d take Buscher and Harris.

I also wanted to briefly throw out a link to Travis Talks, where Travis Aune is kicking out a ridiculous amount of content. Very impressive indeed, and it is all more than worth reading.

Finally, there will actually be some changes to the blog over the next couple weeks, despite the warning to the right that has been there for weeks with no change. If you look above, I added a separate page for “on my list” players and personalities. There is only one member of that prestigious list at the moment. It will be updated throughout the season with the names of others that deserve mention; I’ll mention updates in posts like this one.

In other news, I am part of a fantasy baseball league this season, located here. Last night was our draft, and I had the first overall pick. Here’s the breakdown:

1. Hanley Ramirez – SS – Marlins
2. Chase Utley – 2b – Phillies
3. Evan Longoria – 3b – Rays
4. Mike Napoli – C – Angels
5. Jason Bay – OF – Red Sox
6. Brad Lidge – RP – Phillies
7. Adrian Gonzalez – 1b – Padres
8. Daisuke Matsuzaka – SP – Red Sox
9. Scott Baker – SP – Twins
10. Scott Kazmir – SP – Rays
11. Shane Victorino – OF – Phillies
12. Rich Harden – SP – Cubs
13. Ryan Ludwick – OF – Cardinals
14. Huston Street – RP – Rockies
15. Chad Qualls – RP – D-Backs
16. John Danks – SP – White Sox
17. Gil Meche – SP – Royals
18. Denard Span – OF – Twins
19. Mike Aviles – IF – Royals
20. Carlos Guillen – IF – Tigers
21. Shin-Soo Choo – OF – Indians
22. David DeJesus – UTIL – Royals
23. Bengie Molina – C – Giants
24. Kyle Lohse – SP – Cardinals
25. Casey Blake – 3b/1b – Dodgers

I think this went alright. The one big mistake I have was drafting Napoli so high, I had forgotten that he is injured with little timeline. I also think that I got one of the steals of the draft, with Shin-Soo Choo in the 21st round (the other big steal (not by me) involved Chris Carpenter in the 22nd round). I found it a little bit strange (to say the least) to have to draft twice in a row (i.e. I had the first overall pick, then the 20th, then the 21st, then the 40th, and so on), but Andrew Kneeland had to do the same, and pulled it off just fine.

Let me take a moment at the end to promote the other bloggers’ sites that are participating in this league. They are, in no particular order:

Thrylos98 of The Tenth Inning Stretch

Seth Stohs of Sethspeaks.net

John Bonnes of Twins Geek

John Hageman of Over the Baggy

Josh Johnson of Josh’s Thoughts

Andrew Kneeland of Twins Fix

Nick Nelson of Nick and Nick’s Twins Blog

John Meyer of Twins MVB

John Marthaler of TNABACG